Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints17
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists6
- Pascal SiakamRebounds7
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints34
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–123
- Q423.0James Johnson makes 7-foot two point shot107–123
- Q432.1Jaylin Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)105–123
- Q450.1T.J. McConnell makes 9-foot two point shot105–120
- Q458.1Ajay Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2103–120
- Q458.1Ajay Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2103–119
- Q458.1James Johnson personal foul103–118
- Q41:16Ben Sheppard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)103–118
- Q41:36Isaiah Joe lost ball turnover (T.J. McConnell steals)100–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:32Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 3 – 2 OKC · IND 16% → 20% +4IND 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q19:36Luguentz Dort makes 27-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)IND 5 – 7 OKC · OKC 79% → 83% +4OKC 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q13:39Obi Toppin makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 17 – 17 OKC · IND 16% → 21% +5IND 16% → 21%+5 pts
- Q12:43Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot three pointer (Obi Toppin assists)IND 20 – 17 OKC · IND 21% → 27% +5IND 21% → 27%+5 pts
- Q150.0Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)IND 20 – 24 OKC · OKC 80% → 84% +5OKC 80% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -11.5
- ML IND +410 / OKC -550
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3.5
- OKC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 63.4%, market 81.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -432
- IND +432 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 108.0 – 119.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1666 | 1736 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | −6 | IND: Missing Isaiah Jackson −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +96 Elo | OKC 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 72.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 81.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 120.04th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 107.53rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +12.51st of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 117.74th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 105.41st of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 35–61st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+4 Elo- Isaiah Jackson torn right achilles tendon−2 Elo
Thunder
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 48–51 | 63–37 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–34 | 60–36 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 54–45 | 55–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 3–2 OKC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.