Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints32
- Anthony EdwardsAssists6
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds9
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints38
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Jalen WilliamsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–118
- Q410.1Jalen Williams defensive rebound103–118
- Q414.1Jaden McDaniels misses 26-foot three point jumper103–118
- Q423.1shot clock turnover103–118
- Q423.1Thunder offensive team rebound103–118
- Q424.1Chet Holmgren misses layup103–118
- Q447.0Chet Holmgren defensive rebound103–118
- Q450.1Naz Reid misses 28-foot three point jumper103–118
- Q457.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2103–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:52Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 32 – 31 OKC · MIN 25% → 32% +6MIN 25% → 32%+6 pts
- Q25:50Anthony Edwards makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 42 – 43 OKC · MIN 22% → 28% +6MIN 22% → 28%+6 pts
- Q22:10Jaden McDaniels makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 48 – 51 OKC · MIN 19% → 25% +6MIN 19% → 25%+6 pts
- Q216.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 50 – 56 OKC · OKC 75% → 81% +6OKC 75% → 81%+6 pts
- Q37:32Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)MIN 59 – 66 OKC · OKC 77% → 84% +7OKC 77% → 84%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -8.5
- ML MIN +265 / OKC -340
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4.5
- OKC 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- OKC: Elo 67.8%, market 73.8%
- Fair odds
- OKC -282
- MIN +282 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 104.5 – 113.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1662 | 1755 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | +8 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +130 Elo | OKC 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 68.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 73.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 120.04th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 107.53rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +12.51st of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 117.74th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 105.41st of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.9 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 35–61st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–46 | 61–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 32–37 | 58–33 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 50–43 | 52–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–5 OKC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- May 20MIN 88 @ OKC 114PlayoffsPicked OKC 71%Hit
- Feb 24MIN 131 @ OKC 128Picked OKC 83%Miss
- Feb 23OKC 130 @ MIN 123Picked OKC 75%Hit
- Feb 13OKC 101 @ MIN 116Picked OKC 78%Miss
- Dec 31MIN 105 @ OKC 113Picked OKC 69%Hit
- Jan 29MIN 107 @ OKC 101Picked OKC 60%Miss
- Jan 20OKC 102 @ MIN 97Picked MIN 56%Miss
- Dec 26MIN 106 @ OKC 129Picked OKC 56%Hit