Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints28
- Naz ReidAssists4
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds9
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Jalen WilliamsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game88–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter88–114
- Q40.0shot clock turnover88–114
- Q423.0Isaiah Joe defensive rebound88–114
- Q424.1Jaylen Clark misses 23-foot three point jumper88–114
- Q436.0Kenrich Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dillon Jones assists)88–114
- Q451.1Isaiah Joe defensive rebound88–111
- Q454.1Terrence Shannon Jr. misses 13-foot pullup jump shot88–111
- Q41:07Dillon Jones makes 22-foot three point shot (Ajay Mitchell assists)88–111
- Q41:12Isaiah Joe defensive rebound88–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:42Cason Wallace makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)MIN 40 – 36 OKC · OKC 48% → 56% +8OKC 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q21:56Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointerMIN 45 – 38 OKC · MIN 45% → 53% +8MIN 45% → 53%+8 pts
- Q310:36Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)MIN 48 – 47 OKC · OKC 53% → 62% +9OKC 53% → 62%+9 pts
- Q37:51Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three pointerMIN 57 – 56 OKC · MIN 30% → 39% +9MIN 30% → 39%+9 pts
- Q37:22Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 60 – 56 OKC · MIN 39% → 49% +10MIN 39% → 49%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -7.5
- ML MIN +235 / OKC -285
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4.5
- OKC 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 68.1%, market 71.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -248
- MIN +248 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 106.0 – 113.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1673 | 1744 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +46 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +132 Elo | OKC 68.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 70.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 70.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 71.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 120.04th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 107.53rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +12.51st of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 117.74th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 105.41st of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.9 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 35–61st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–45 | 60–34 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 32–37 | 57–33 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 50–42 | 52–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–4 OKC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Feb 24MIN 131 @ OKC 128Picked OKC 83%Miss
- Feb 23OKC 130 @ MIN 123Picked OKC 75%Hit
- Feb 13OKC 101 @ MIN 116Picked OKC 78%Miss
- Dec 31MIN 105 @ OKC 113Picked OKC 69%Hit
- Jan 29MIN 107 @ OKC 101Picked OKC 60%Miss
- Jan 20OKC 102 @ MIN 97Picked MIN 56%Miss
- Dec 26MIN 106 @ OKC 129Picked OKC 56%Hit
- Nov 28OKC 103 @ MIN 106Picked MIN 52%Hit