Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints25
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds14
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints27
- Aaron GordonAssists6
- Aaron GordonRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–87
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–87
- Q40.0Nuggets offensive team rebound92–87
- Q40.1Nikola Jokic misses 80-foot three point jumper92–87
- Q41.0Jalen Williams makes free throw 2 of 292–87
- Q41.0Jalen Williams makes free throw 1 of 291–87
- Q41.0Christian Braun personal take foul90–87
- Q41.1Cason Wallace enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein90–87
- Q41.1Thunder Full timeout90–87
- Q42.0Aaron Gordon makes 27-foot three point shot90–87
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:16Christian Braun makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)OKC 61 – 66 DEN · DEN 47% → 59% +12DEN 47% → 59%+12 pts
- Q348.1Russell Westbrook makes 25-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)OKC 63 – 69 DEN · DEN 52% → 63% +12DEN 52% → 63%+12 pts
- Q410:43Cason Wallace makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 69 – 73 DEN · OKC 30% → 42% +12OKC 30% → 42%+12 pts
- Q49:54Aaron Wiggins makes 26-foot three point shot (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 72 – 73 DEN · OKC 41% → 55% +14OKC 41% → 55%+14 pts
- Q48:35Cason Wallace makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)OKC 75 – 73 DEN · OKC 54% → 68% +14OKC 54% → 68%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -6.5
- ML OKC -265 / DEN +215
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4
- OKC 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- OKC: Elo 66.3%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- OKC -229
- DEN +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 117.0 – 110.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1742 | 1623 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +54 | +21 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +117 Elo | OKC 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 67.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.0 | Points scored | 120.83rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.5 | Points allowed | 116.925th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.5 | Margin | +3.99th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 117.83rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.4 | Defense rating | 114.021st of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.67th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3032–8 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 59–31 | 43–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 56–30 | 28–36 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders | 50–40 | 53–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 6–5 DEN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.
- May 9OKC 104 @ DEN 113PlayoffsPicked OKC 69%Miss
- May 7DEN 106 @ OKC 149PlayoffsPicked OKC 78%Hit
- May 5DEN 121 @ OKC 119PlayoffsPicked OKC 79%Miss
- Mar 10DEN 140 @ OKC 127Picked OKC 76%Miss
- Mar 9DEN 103 @ OKC 127Picked OKC 72%Hit
- Nov 6OKC 122 @ DEN 124Picked OKC 69%Miss
- Oct 24OKC 102 @ DEN 87Picked DEN 54%Miss
- Jan 31DEN 100 @ OKC 105Picked OKC 68%Hit