Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints38
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds12
Grizzlies- Scotty Pippen Jr.Points30
- Desmond BaneAssists5
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–115
- Q40.2Grizzlies offensive team rebound117–115
- Q40.2Desmond Bane misses free throw 2 of 2117–115
- Q40.2Isaiah Hartenstein enters the game for Cason Wallace117–115
- Q40.2Jaylin Williams enters the game for Alex Caruso117–115
- Q40.2Shai Gilgeous-Alexander enters the game for Luguentz Dort117–115
- Q40.2Vince Williams Jr. enters the game for Luke Kennard117–115
- Q40.2Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2117–115
- Q40.2Luguentz Dort personal take foul117–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:14Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 26-foot three pointerOKC 92 – 90 MEM · MEM 13% → 22% +9MEM 13% → 22%+9 pts
- Q48:59Isaiah Joe makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 95 – 90 MEM · OKC 78% → 87% +9OKC 78% → 87%+9 pts
- Q41:53Santi Aldama makes 23-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)OKC 108 – 106 MEM · MEM 6% → 22% +16MEM 6% → 22%+16 pts
- Q41:34Jalen Williams makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotOKC 110 – 106 MEM · OKC 79% → 92% +13OKC 79% → 92%+13 pts
- Q41:29Scotty Pippen Jr. makes two point shotOKC 110 – 108 MEM · MEM 8% → 21% +13MEM 8% → 21%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -15.5
- ML OKC -1400 / MEM +750
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -11
- OKC 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 85.0%, market 88.8%
- Fair odds
- OKC -793
- MEM +793 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 119.5 – 104.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1752 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +54 | −43 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +302 Elo | OKC 85.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 83.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 83.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 88.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.0 | Points scored | 121.72nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.5 | Points allowed | 116.924th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.5 | Margin | +4.95th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 115.26th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.4 | Defense rating | 110.69th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 105.61st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3032–8 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 58–28 | 42–43 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 55–27 | 30–22 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 12–21 |
| Overs–unders | 47–39 | 47–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 10–0 MEM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 10.
- Apr 24OKC 114 @ MEM 108PlayoffsPicked OKC 77%Hit
- Apr 22MEM 99 @ OKC 118PlayoffsPicked OKC 86%Hit
- Apr 20MEM 80 @ OKC 131PlayoffsPicked OKC 86%Hit
- Mar 27MEM 104 @ OKC 125Picked OKC 80%Hit
- Mar 5OKC 120 @ MEM 103Picked OKC 70%Hit
- Feb 8OKC 125 @ MEM 112Picked OKC 53%Hit
- Dec 29MEM 106 @ OKC 130Picked OKC 72%Hit
- Mar 16OKC 118 @ MEM 112Picked OKC 64%Hit