Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds8
Grizzlies- Scotty Pippen Jr.Points28
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists5
- Desmond BaneRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–108
- Q41.0Jalen Williams defensive rebound114–108
- Q41.0Santi Aldama misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot114–108
- Q49.1Alex Caruso makes free throw 2 of 2114–108
- Q49.1Thunder offensive team rebound113–108
- Q49.1Alex Caruso misses free throw 1 of 2113–108
- Q49.1Jaren Jackson Jr. personal take foul113–108
- Q413.1Alex Caruso defensive rebound113–108
- Q416.1Desmond Bane misses 23-foot three point shot113–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:41Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 96 – 99 MEM · OKC 34% → 48% +14OKC 34% → 48%+14 pts
- Q45:04Luguentz Dort makes layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 105 – 105 MEM · OKC 47% → 60% +13OKC 47% → 60%+13 pts
- Q44:51Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)OKC 105 – 108 MEM · MEM 41% → 60% +19MEM 41% → 60%+19 pts
- Q42:39Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)OKC 108 – 108 MEM · OKC 31% → 57% +26OKC 31% → 57%+26 pts
- Q41:20Jalen Williams makes free throw 2 of 2OKC 109 – 108 MEM · OKC 55% → 67% +12OKC 55% → 67%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -9.5
- ML OKC -425 / MEM +320
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -9
- OKC 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 80.9%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -340
- MEM +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 119.5 – 110.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1750 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +50 | −1 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +251 Elo | OKC 80.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 80.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 80.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.0 | Points scored | 121.72nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.5 | Points allowed | 116.924th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.5 | Margin | +4.95th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 115.26th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.4 | Defense rating | 110.69th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 105.61st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3032–8 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 58–27 | 41–43 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 55–26 | 30–22 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 11–21 |
| Overs–unders | 47–38 | 47–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 9–0 MEM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 9.
- Apr 22MEM 99 @ OKC 118PlayoffsPicked OKC 86%Hit
- Apr 20MEM 80 @ OKC 131PlayoffsPicked OKC 86%Hit
- Mar 27MEM 104 @ OKC 125Picked OKC 80%Hit
- Mar 5OKC 120 @ MEM 103Picked OKC 70%Hit
- Feb 8OKC 125 @ MEM 112Picked OKC 53%Hit
- Dec 29MEM 106 @ OKC 130Picked OKC 72%Hit
- Mar 16OKC 118 @ MEM 112Picked OKC 64%Hit
- Mar 10MEM 93 @ OKC 124Picked OKC 72%Hit