Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints33
- Jalen WilliamsAssists5
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds10
Suns- Bradley BealPoints25
- Devin BookerAssists14
- Ryan DunnRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–112
- Q410.1shot clock turnover125–112
- Q434.1TyTy Washington Jr. makes 1-foot two point shot (Oso Ighodaro assists)125–112
- Q447.0Damion Lee defensive rebound125–110
- Q450.1Kenrich Williams misses 11-foot pullup jump shot125–110
- Q41:07Damion Lee makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Collin Gillespie assists)125–110
- Q41:09Collin Gillespie offensive rebound125–108
- Q41:13Jalen Bridges misses 25-foot three point jumper125–108
- Q41:24Suns defensive team rebound125–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:35Bradley Beal makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Collin Gillespie assists)OKC 78 – 79 PHX · PHX 31% → 40% +9PHX 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q36:14Jalen Williams makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kenrich Williams assists)OKC 81 – 79 PHX · OKC 59% → 69% +9OKC 59% → 69%+9 pts
- Q35:23Bradley Beal makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)OKC 83 – 82 PHX · PHX 25% → 34% +9PHX 25% → 34%+9 pts
- Q33:03Collin Gillespie makes 28-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)OKC 91 – 89 PHX · PHX 22% → 32% +9PHX 22% → 32%+9 pts
- Q32:18Jaylin Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kenrich Williams assists)OKC 96 – 91 PHX · OKC 68% → 78% +9OKC 68% → 78%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -6.5
- ML OKC -270 / PHX +220
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -9.5
- OKC 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 81.8%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- OKC -234
- PHX +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 117.5 – 111.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1719 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | PHX and OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −53 | −81 | OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +261 Elo | OKC 81.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 78.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 79.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.7 | Points scored | 113.818th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.5 | Points allowed | 116.824th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.2 | Margin | −3.122nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 114.49th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.5 | Defense rating | 117.429th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.7 | Pace | 98.725th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3029–8 | Road vs home | 23–1613th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 53–27 | 30–49 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 50–26 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 12–24 |
| Overs–unders | 45–35 | 41–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 5–0 PHX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.