Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints28
- Austin ReavesAssists5
- Jarred VanderbiltRebounds12
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints42
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–136
- Q42.1shot clock turnover120–136
- Q426.1Trey Jemison III makes two point shot120–136
- Q428.0Trey Jemison III offensive rebound118–136
- Q430.0Dalton Knecht misses driving floating jump shot118–136
- Q442.1Shake Milton defensive rebound118–136
- Q446.0Branden Carlson misses 27-foot three point jumper118–136
- Q447.2Thunder offensive team rebound118–136
- Q451.0Branden Carlson misses 26-foot three point jumper118–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:57Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 96 – 93 OKC · OKC 43% → 54% +12OKC 43% → 54%+12 pts
- Q411:49Aaron Wiggins makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)LAL 98 – 100 OKC · OKC 60% → 72% +11OKC 60% → 72%+11 pts
- Q411:13Cason Wallace makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)LAL 100 – 103 OKC · OKC 64% → 75% +11OKC 64% → 75%+11 pts
- Q47:04Alex Caruso makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)LAL 110 – 112 OKC · OKC 56% → 71% +15OKC 56% → 71%+15 pts
- Q46:02Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 112 – 117 OKC · OKC 71% → 84% +13OKC 71% → 84%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -9.5
- ML LAL +315 / OKC -400
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -5
- OKC 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 69.1%, market 76.9%
- Fair odds
- OKC -332
- LAL +332 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 110.5 – 120.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1711 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | +35 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +140 Elo | OKC 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 69.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 76.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.4 | Points scored | 119.54th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 107.32nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +12.21st of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 117.34th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 105.31st of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.3 | Pace | 101.76th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 15th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 34–61st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–33 | 52–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 25–21 | 49–26 |
| Underdog | 20–12 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 39–39 | 44–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 4–2 OKC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.