Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints30
- LeBron JamesAssists7
- Luka DoncicRebounds7
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints26
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Jalen WilliamsRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–99
- Q45.1shot clock turnover126–99
- Q429.1Christian Koloko defensive rebound126–99
- Q433.0Aaron Wiggins misses 24-foot three point jumper126–99
- Q434.1Dillon Jones offensive rebound126–99
- Q437.1Isaiah Joe misses 27-foot three point jumper126–99
- Q449.1Bronny James makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Jordan Goodwin assists)126–99
- Q454.1Bronny James defensive rebound123–99
- Q459.0Kenrich Williams misses 25-foot three point jumper123–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:17Gabe Vincent makes 25-foot three pointerLAL 37 – 27 OKC · LAL 42% → 49% +7LAL 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q140.2Gabe Vincent makes 25-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 40 – 29 OKC · LAL 44% → 51% +7LAL 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q127.1Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)LAL 40 – 32 OKC · OKC 49% → 56% +7OKC 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q211:15Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three pointer (Gabe Vincent assists)LAL 47 – 32 OKC · LAL 55% → 62% +7LAL 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q26:47Dorian Finney-Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 58 – 42 OKC · LAL 61% → 68% +7LAL 61% → 68%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -9.5
- ML LAL +300 / OKC -400
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -9.5
- OKC 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 82.3%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -320
- LAL +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 111.0 – 120.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1753 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | +53 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +267 Elo | OKC 82.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 75.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 76.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 119.84th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 107.12nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +12.71st of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 105.01st of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.4 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 17th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 34–51st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–33 | 52–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 25–21 | 49–25 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 39–38 | 44–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 3–2 OKC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.