Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints25
- Stephen CurryAssists6
- Stephen CurryRebounds9
Suns- Devin BookerPoints21
- Devin BookerAssists4
- Nick RichardsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–95
- Q42.1Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound133–95
- Q42.1Damion Lee misses running pullup jump shot133–95
- Q48.1Damion Lee defensive rebound133–95
- Q410.1Trayce Jackson-Davis misses 27-foot three point jumper133–95
- Q426.0Damion Lee makes 11-foot step back jumpshot (Collin Gillespie assists)133–95
- Q431.2Kevin Knox II makes driving layup133–93
- Q450.1Mason Plumlee makes free throw 2 of 2131–93
- Q450.1Suns offensive team rebound131–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:18Brandin Podziemski makes 25-foot three pointerGS 3 – 0 PHX · GS 78% → 83% +4GS 78% → 83%+4 pts
- Q19:58Bradley Beal makes 24-foot three pointer (Devin Booker assists)GS 7 – 5 PHX · PHX 15% → 19% +4PHX 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q19:05Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)GS 7 – 8 PHX · PHX 19% → 24% +5PHX 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q18:54Moses Moody makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 10 – 8 PHX · GS 76% → 81% +5GS 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q17:42Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 13 – 8 PHX · GS 81% → 85% +4GS 81% → 85%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- GS -9.5
- ML GS -450 / PHX +350
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -6.5
- GS 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- GS: Elo 74.0%, market 78.6%
- Fair odds
- GS -368
- PHX +368 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 118.5 – 109.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +44 | −82 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | GS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +181 Elo | GS 74.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 74.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 74.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 78.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 114.015th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 116.622nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.9 | Margin | −2.621st of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 114.68th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 117.328th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.5 | Pace | 98.725th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 7th of 3022–17 | Road vs home | 23–1513th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–37 | 30–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–27 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 15–10 | 12–23 |
| Overs–unders | 39–39 | 40–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 2–5 PHX in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.