Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Daniel GaffordPoints20
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists7
- Kai JonesRebounds8
Grizzlies- Lamar StevensPoints31
- Cam SpencerAssists7
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–132
- Q43.0shot clock turnover97–132
- Q427.0Jaden Hardy makes 9-foot two point shot97–132
- Q447.1Mavericks defensive team rebound95–132
- Q448.1Yuki Kawamura misses 25-foot three point jumper95–132
- Q41:00Max Christie kicked ball violation95–132
- Q41:10Kai Jones makes dunk (Max Christie assists)95–132
- Q41:16Kai Jones defensive rebound93–132
- Q41:18GG Jackson misses driving layup93–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:02GG Jackson makes 22-foot three point shot (Lamar Stevens assists)DAL 19 – 21 MEM · MEM 43% → 50% +7MEM 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q14:15Cam Spencer makes 24-foot three point shot (Yuki Kawamura assists)DAL 19 – 24 MEM · MEM 50% → 56% +7MEM 50% → 56%+7 pts
- Q13:39Yuki Kawamura makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)DAL 19 – 27 MEM · MEM 57% → 63% +7MEM 57% → 63%+7 pts
- Q12:03Lamar Stevens makes 24-foot three point jumper (Yuki Kawamura assists)DAL 24 – 34 MEM · MEM 61% → 68% +7MEM 61% → 68%+7 pts
- Q26:33Jay Huff makes 24-foot three point shot (Yuki Kawamura assists)DAL 40 – 52 MEM · MEM 69% → 75% +7MEM 69% → 75%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -1.5
- ML DAL -135 / MEM +115
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -1
- DAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- DAL: Elo 53.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -124
- MEM +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 115.0 – 113.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −37 | −117 | DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −16 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MEM: Missing Zach Edey −29, Scotty Pippen Jr. −15, Santi Aldama −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +26 Elo | DAL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 56.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 121.62nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 117.125th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +4.57th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 115.06th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 110.89th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.0 | Pace | 105.61st of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3017–24 | Road vs home | 25–1511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−37 Elo- Dereck Lively II right ankle injury−16 Elo
Grizzlies
−117 Elo- Zach Edey left ankle−29 Elo
- Scotty Pippen Jr. lower back soreness−15 Elo
- Santi Aldama left ankle−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–42 | 40–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–18 | 30–22 |
| Underdog | 23–24 | 10–19 |
| Overs–unders | 43–38 | 46–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–4 MEM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.