Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints24
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists7
- Zach EdeyRebounds16
Nuggets- Aaron GordonPoints33
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Nikola JokicRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–117
- Q42.0shot clock turnover109–117
- Q414.0Aaron Gordon offensive rebound109–117
- Q416.1Nikola Jokic misses 22-foot two point shot109–117
- Q437.1Santi Aldama enters the game for Luke Kennard109–117
- Q438.0Aaron Gordon defensive rebound109–117
- Q442.0Ja Morant misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot109–117
- Q449.1Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2109–117
- Q449.1Luke Kennard enters the game for Zach Edey109–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:01Luke Kennard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 103 – 97 DEN · MEM 54% → 68% +14MEM 54% → 68%+14 pts
- Q44:37Nikola Jokic makes 2-foot layup (Christian Braun assists)MEM 108 – 105 DEN · DEN 25% → 37% +12DEN 25% → 37%+12 pts
- Q43:58Aaron Gordon makes 1-foot driving dunk (Nikola Jokic assists)MEM 108 – 107 DEN · DEN 35% → 49% +14DEN 35% → 49%+14 pts
- Q42:46Jamal Murray makes 15-foot step back jumpshot (Nikola Jokic assists)MEM 108 – 110 DEN · DEN 55% → 72% +16DEN 55% → 72%+16 pts
- Q42:12Nikola Jokic makes 8-foot two point shot (Jamal Murray assists)MEM 108 – 112 DEN · DEN 73% → 86% +13DEN 73% → 86%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -7.5
- ML MEM +240 / DEN -290
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4.5
- DEN 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 67.6%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- DEN -253
- MEM +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 119.0 – 126.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 245.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +40 | +33 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +128 Elo | DEN 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 65.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.7 | Points scored | 120.73rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 117.024th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.6 | Margin | +3.79th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 117.73rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 114.122nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.6 | Pace | 101.67th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 9th of 3022–18 | Road vs home | 25–1510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–40 | 36–44 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–22 | 25–34 |
| Underdog | 10–18 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 46–34 | 47–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 1–5 DEN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.