Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints45
- Luka DoncicAssists6
- Luka DoncicRebounds8
Mavericks- Naji MarshallPoints23
- Naji MarshallAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–97
- Q421.0Caleb Martin out of bounds lost ball turnover112–97
- Q430.1Dalton Knecht makes 1-foot dunk (Bronny James assists)112–97
- Q454.0Caleb Martin makes free throw 2 of 2110–97
- Q454.0Caleb Martin makes free throw 1 of 2110–96
- Q454.0Bronny James shooting foul110–95
- Q41:08Dwight Powell defensive rebound110–95
- Q41:10Gabe Vincent misses 5-foot two point shot110–95
- Q41:34Caleb Martin makes free throw 2 of 2110–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:00Klay Thompson makes 24-foot three point shot (Max Christie assists)LAL 85 – 87 DAL · DAL 39% → 53% +14DAL 39% → 53%+14 pts
- Q48:39Rui Hachimura makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 87 – 87 DAL · LAL 46% → 56% +10LAL 46% → 56%+10 pts
- Q46:49P.J. Washington makes 22-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)LAL 94 – 90 DAL · DAL 14% → 25% +11DAL 14% → 25%+11 pts
- Q46:07P.J. Washington makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)LAL 96 – 93 DAL · DAL 16% → 29% +13DAL 16% → 29%+13 pts
- Q45:42Austin Reaves makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)LAL 99 – 93 DAL · LAL 72% → 85% +13LAL 72% → 85%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -4.5
- ML LAL -200 / DAL +165
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2
- LAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- LAL: Elo 57.5%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- LAL -177
- DAL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 116.0 – 111.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1589 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +32 | +21 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +53 Elo | LAL 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 59.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.5 | Points scored | 114.513th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 115.419th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.918th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 113.015th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 113.919th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.4 | Pace | 101.112th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 15th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 21–1715th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–34 | 38–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–21 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 23–23 |
| Overs–unders | 40–39 | 42–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–3 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.