Toronto Raptors at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints26
- Jonathan MogboAssists8
- A.J. LawsonRebounds10
Mavericks- Anthony DavisPoints23
- Anthony DavisAssists10
- Anthony DavisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–124
- Q40.1A.J. Lawson offensive rebound102–124
- Q42.2Garrett Temple misses 24-foot three point jumper102–124
- Q413.1shot clock turnover102–124
- Q437.0Jamal Shead lost ball turnover (Caleb Martin steals)102–124
- Q446.2Brandon Williams makes driving layup (Caleb Martin assists)102–124
- Q459.1Jamison Battle makes 24-foot three pointer (Jamal Shead assists)102–122
- Q41:08Jamison Battle defensive rebound99–122
- Q41:08Caleb Martin misses 22-foot jumper99–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:19Naji Marshall makes 25-foot three point jumper (Klay Thompson assists)TOR 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 81% → 85% +4DAL 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q16:02Ochai Agbaji makes 25-foot three pointerTOR 12 – 14 DAL · TOR 14% → 17% +4TOR 14% → 17%+4 pts
- Q13:28Ochai Agbaji makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Mogbo assists)TOR 21 – 22 DAL · TOR 15% → 20% +4TOR 15% → 20%+4 pts
- Q11:58Max Christie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Caleb Martin assists)TOR 23 – 27 DAL · DAL 80% → 85% +5DAL 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q11:26Max Christie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)TOR 23 – 30 DAL · DAL 84% → 88% +4DAL 84% → 88%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -11.5
- ML TOR +400 / DAL -600
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -5
- DAL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 68.7%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -429
- TOR +429 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 106.5 – 118.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −21 | +30 | TOR: Missing Immanuel Quickley −20, RJ Barrett −15, Jared Rhoden −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +137 Elo | DAL 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 72.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 81.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.9 | Points scored | 114.314th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 115.319th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.0 | Margin | −1.118th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 112.916th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 113.920th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.013th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 24th of 3012–27 | Road vs home | 21–1815th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−21 Elo- Immanuel Quickley rest−20 Elo
- RJ Barrett rest−15 Elo
- Jared Rhoden right shoulder sprain−6 Elo
Mavericks
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–31 | 38–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–5 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 39–26 | 23–24 |
| Overs–unders | 40–40 | 42–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–2 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.