Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Aaron WigginsPoints28
- Aaron WigginsAssists7
- Kenrich WilliamsRebounds12
Pelicans- Antonio ReevesPoints20
- Lester QuinonesAssists6
- Jeremiah Robinson-EarlRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–100
- Q419.0Lester Quinones makes two point shot115–100
- Q424.0Jeremiah Robinson-Earl defensive rebound115–98
- Q426.2Alex Ducas misses driving floating jump shot115–98
- Q437.0Keion Brooks Jr. lost ball turnover (Dillon Jones steals)115–98
- Q442.0Keion Brooks Jr. defensive rebound115–98
- Q445.1Kenrich Williams misses 26-foot three point jumper115–98
- Q446.1Branden Carlson offensive rebound115–98
- Q449.1Adam Flagler misses 23-foot three point jumper115–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:40Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotOKC 5 – 0 NO · OKC 86% → 89% +3OKC 86% → 89%+3 pts
- Q37:45Elfrid Payton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Robinson-Earl assists)OKC 71 – 62 NO · NO 5% → 8% +3NO 5% → 8%+3 pts
- Q37:12Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jose Alvarado assists)OKC 71 – 65 NO · NO 8% → 13% +5NO 8% → 13%+5 pts
- Q36:19Kenrich Williams makes layup (Isaiah Joe assists)OKC 73 – 65 NO · OKC 87% → 90% +3OKC 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q34:09Aaron Wiggins makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 78 – 67 NO · OKC 90% → 94% +4OKC 90% → 94%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -13.5
- ML OKC -800 / NO +500
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -10.5
- OKC 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 84.8%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -533
- NO +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 122.0 – 108.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1732 | 1342 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −132 | −89 | OKC: Missing Alex Caruso −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · NO: Missing Karlo Matkovic −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +299 Elo | OKC 84.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 84.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 84.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.1 | Points scored | 110.025th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.6 | Points allowed | 119.326th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.5 | Margin | −9.429th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 108.525th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.5 | Defense rating | 117.829th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 100.814th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3031–8 | Road vs home | 14–2625th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−132 Elo- Alex Caruso right ankle sprain−4 Elo
Pelicans
−89 Elo- Karlo Matkovic left hamstring soreness−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 55–27 | 34–47 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 52–26 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 25–38 |
| Overs–unders | 47–35 | 45–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 9–1 NO in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Feb 10NO 101 @ OKC 137Picked OKC 90%Hit
- Dec 7OKC 119 @ NO 109Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Nov 13NO 88 @ OKC 106Picked OKC 88%Hit
- Apr 29OKC 97 @ NO 89PlayoffsPicked OKC 67%Hit
- Apr 27OKC 106 @ NO 85PlayoffsPicked OKC 62%Hit
- Apr 24NO 92 @ OKC 124PlayoffsPicked OKC 67%Hit
- Apr 21NO 92 @ OKC 94PlayoffsPicked OKC 65%Hit
- Mar 26OKC 119 @ NO 112Picked NO 54%Miss