Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Aaron WigginsPoints35
- Jaylin WilliamsAssists10
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds11
Jazz- Svi MykhailiukPoints27
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists8
- Oscar TshiebweRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game145–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter145–111
- Q413.2Adam Flagler makes free throw 2 of 2145–111
- Q413.2Thunder offensive team rebound144–111
- Q413.2Adam Flagler misses free throw 1 of 2144–111
- Q413.2Brice Sensabaugh personal foul144–111
- Q413.2Brice Sensabaugh lost ball turnover (Adam Flagler steals)144–111
- Q419.2Oscar Tshiebwe defensive rebound144–111
- Q423.1Dillon Jones misses 26-foot three point jumper144–111
- Q437.0Alex Ducas offensive rebound144–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:39Aaron Wiggins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dillon Jones assists)OKC 3 – 0 UTAH · OKC 76% → 81% +5OKC 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q16:43Jaylin Williams makes 23-foot three point shot (Isaiah Joe assists)OKC 22 – 16 UTAH · OKC 80% → 84% +4OKC 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q15:46Aaron Wiggins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)OKC 25 – 19 UTAH · OKC 80% → 84% +4OKC 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q28:09Aaron Wiggins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)OKC 51 – 44 UTAH · OKC 80% → 85% +5OKC 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q27:33Keyonte George makes 25-foot three pointer (Brice Sensabaugh assists)OKC 53 – 47 UTAH · UTAH 12% → 17% +4UTAH 12% → 17%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -8.5
- ML OKC -400 / UTAH +300
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7.5
- OKC 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 77.0%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -320
- UTAH +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 121.5 – 113.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1723 | 1326 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −153 | −3 | OKC: Missing Alex Caruso −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Elijah Harkless −3 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +210 Elo | OKC 77.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 81.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 81.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.8 | Points scored | 112.021st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.6 | Points allowed | 121.030th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.2 | Margin | −9.027th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 109.124th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.6 | Defense rating | 117.830th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.7 | Pace | 102.05th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3030–8 | Road vs home | 10–3029th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−153 Elo- Alex Caruso right ankle sprain−7 Elo
Jazz
−3 Elo- Elijah Harkless left groin strain−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 54–27 | 40–39 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 51–26 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 39–37 |
| Overs–unders | 46–35 | 47–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 6–1 UTAH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.