Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints37
- Matisse ThybulleAssists6
- Donovan ClinganRebounds9
Jazz- Kyle FilipowskiPoints30
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists6
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds18
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game126–133
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime126–133
- OT2.2Rayan Rupert lost ball turnover (Kyle Filipowski steals)126–133
- OT6.1Johnny Juzang makes free throw 2 of 2126–133
- OT6.1Johnny Juzang makes free throw 1 of 2126–132
- OT6.1Matisse Thybulle personal foul126–131
- OT10.1Rayan Rupert makes driving layup126–131
- OT17.1Keyonte George makes free throw 2 of 2124–131
- OT17.1Keyonte George makes free throw 1 of 2124–130
- OT17.1Jabari Walker personal foul124–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:25Brice Sensabaugh makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Filipowski assists)POR 110 – 110 UTAH · UTAH 21% → 46% +25UTAH 21% → 46%+25 pts
- Q415.0Kyle Filipowski makes 4-foot dunk (Brice Sensabaugh assists)POR 113 – 112 UTAH · UTAH 1% → 22% +21UTAH 1% → 22%+21 pts
- Q42.1Kyle Filipowski makes 5-foot driving dunk (Jaden Springer assists)POR 114 – 114 UTAH · UTAH <1% → 49% +49UTAH <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT4:01Brice Sensabaugh makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kyle Filipowski assists)POR 116 – 117 UTAH · UTAH 31% → 51% +21UTAH 31% → 51%+21 pts
- OT1:22Keyonte George makes 25-foot three pointerPOR 122 – 124 UTAH · UTAH 35% → 70% +36UTAH 35% → 70%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- POR -6.5
- ML POR -265 / UTAH +205
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -4
- POR 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- POR: Elo 66.4%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- POR -221
- UTAH +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 118.5 – 112.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1313 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | −10 | POR: Missing Deni Avdija −32, Anfernee Simons −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Elijah Harkless −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | POR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | POR +118 Elo | POR 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 65.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30111.0 | Points scored | 111.721st of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 120.930th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.1 | Margin | −9.229th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 109.024th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 118.030th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.6 | Pace | 102.05th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 21st of 3014–26 | Road vs home | 9–3029th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−12 Elo- Deni Avdija right thumb injury−32 Elo
- Anfernee Simons right forearm injury−14 Elo
Jazz
−10 Elo- Elijah Harkless left groin strain−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–34 | 39–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 38–29 | 38–37 |
| Overs–unders | 40–39 | 46–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–4 UTAH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.