Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Marvin Bagley IIIPoints17
- Ja MorantAssists4
- Zach EdeyRebounds9
Thunder- Aaron WigginsPoints21
- Jalen WilliamsAssists6
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game80–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter80–131
- Q43.1Aaron Wiggins bad pass (Vince Williams Jr. steals)80–131
- Q424.2Jaylin Williams defensive rebound80–131
- Q427.0Luke Kennard misses 25-foot three point jumper80–131
- Q429.1Dillon Jones bad pass (John Konchar steals)80–131
- Q433.1Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound80–131
- Q435.2Lamar Stevens misses driving layup80–131
- Q452.0Kenrich Williams makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (Aaron Wiggins assists)80–131
- Q41:13Jay Huff makes two point shot80–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:09Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 6-foot pullup jump shotMEM 4 – 0 OKC · MEM 16% → 19% +3MEM 16% → 19%+3 pts
- Q110:56Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 6-foot two point shotMEM 4 – 2 OKC · OKC 81% → 84% +3OKC 81% → 84%+3 pts
- Q18:48Ja Morant makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Zach Edey assists)MEM 7 – 4 OKC · MEM 14% → 18% +4MEM 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q16:38Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)MEM 9 – 11 OKC · OKC 84% → 87% +4OKC 84% → 87%+4 pts
- Q12:22Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)MEM 17 – 24 OKC · OKC 89% → 92% +3OKC 89% → 92%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -13.5
- ML MEM +615 / OKC -850
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -9
- OKC 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- OKC: Elo 80.5%, market 86.5%
- Fair odds
- OKC -640
- MEM +640 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 109.0 – 122.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1735 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | +38 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +246 Elo | OKC 80.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 75.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 76.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 86.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.7 | Points scored | 120.04th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 107.53rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.9 | Margin | +12.51st of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 117.74th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 105.41st of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.6 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 35–61st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–41 | 56–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 30–22 | 53–26 |
| Underdog | 11–19 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 47–35 | 47–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 0–7 OKC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.