Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points26
- Ja MorantAssists6
- Desmond BaneRebounds12
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints27
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists5
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–118
- Q45.1Santi Aldama offensive goaltending turnover99–118
- Q415.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 1-foot dunk99–118
- Q417.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound99–116
- Q420.0Chet Holmgren blocks Desmond Bane 's 4-foot layup99–116
- Q427.0Grizzlies defensive team rebound99–116
- Q427.0Isaiah Hartenstein misses tip shot99–116
- Q427.0Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound99–116
- Q429.1Chet Holmgren misses 9-foot two point shot99–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:10Luguentz Dort makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)MEM 0 – 6 OKC · OKC 89% → 92% +3OKC 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q36:37Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)MEM 70 – 78 OKC · MEM 5% → 9% +3MEM 5% → 9%+3 pts
- Q36:18Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 19-foot jumperMEM 70 – 80 OKC · OKC 91% → 94% +2OKC 91% → 94%+2 pts
- Q36:03Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Zach Edey assists)MEM 72 – 80 OKC · MEM 6% → 9% +2MEM 6% → 9%+2 pts
- Q35:43Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 3-foot two point shotMEM 72 – 82 OKC · OKC 91% → 94% +2OKC 91% → 94%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -14.5
- ML MEM +600 / OKC -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -11
- OKC 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 85.3%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -636
- MEM +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 107.5 – 122.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1746 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | +41 | MEM: Usual rotation · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +305 Elo | OKC 85.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 84.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 84.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.7 | Points scored | 120.04th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 107.53rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.9 | Margin | +12.51st of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 117.74th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 105.41st of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.6 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 35–61st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–42 | 57–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 30–22 | 54–26 |
| Underdog | 11–20 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 47–36 | 47–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 0–8 OKC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 8.
- Apr 20MEM 80 @ OKC 131PlayoffsPicked OKC 86%Hit
- Mar 27MEM 104 @ OKC 125Picked OKC 80%Hit
- Mar 5OKC 120 @ MEM 103Picked OKC 70%Hit
- Feb 8OKC 125 @ MEM 112Picked OKC 53%Hit
- Dec 29MEM 106 @ OKC 130Picked OKC 72%Hit
- Mar 16OKC 118 @ MEM 112Picked OKC 64%Hit
- Mar 10MEM 93 @ OKC 124Picked OKC 72%Hit
- Dec 18MEM 97 @ OKC 116Picked OKC 76%Hit