Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Russell WestbrookPoints19
- Nikola JokicAssists6
- Nikola JokicRebounds8
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints34
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–149
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–149
- Q411.1Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound106–149
- Q413.0Julian Strawther misses two point shot106–149
- Q428.1Hunter Tyson defensive rebound106–149
- Q431.0Kenrich Williams misses 30-foot three point jumper106–149
- Q438.1Jalen Pickett makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot106–149
- Q458.0Dillon Jones makes free throw 2 of 2103–149
- Q458.0Dillon Jones makes free throw 1 of 2103–148
- Q458.0Zeke Nnaji shooting foul103–147
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:26Jamal Murray makes 12-foot driving floating jump shotDEN 2 – 0 OKC · DEN 22% → 25% +3DEN 22% → 25%+3 pts
- Q111:05Luguentz Dort makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)DEN 2 – 3 OKC · OKC 75% → 80% +5OKC 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q110:18Isaiah Hartenstein makes 2-foot alley oop dunk shot (Chet Holmgren assists)DEN 2 – 5 OKC · OKC 79% → 82% +3OKC 79% → 82%+3 pts
- Q19:12Aaron Gordon makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 7 – 9 OKC · DEN 15% → 19% +4DEN 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q17:24Chet Holmgren makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DEN 9 – 18 OKC · OKC 86% → 89% +3OKC 86% → 89%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -10.5
- ML DEN +340 / OKC -450
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6
- OKC 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 72.5%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -360
- DEN +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 110.0 – 120.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1621 | 1745 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +44 | +52 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +168 Elo | OKC 72.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 73.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 73.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.8 | Points scored | 120.04th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 107.53rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.9 | Margin | +12.51st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 117.74th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 105.41st of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 35–61st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–48 | 58–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–36 | 55–29 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 52–38 | 49–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 4–5 OKC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- May 5DEN 121 @ OKC 119PlayoffsPicked OKC 79%Miss
- Mar 10DEN 140 @ OKC 127Picked OKC 76%Miss
- Mar 9DEN 103 @ OKC 127Picked OKC 72%Hit
- Nov 6OKC 122 @ DEN 124Picked OKC 69%Miss
- Oct 24OKC 102 @ DEN 87Picked DEN 54%Miss
- Jan 31DEN 100 @ OKC 105Picked OKC 68%Hit
- Dec 29OKC 119 @ DEN 93Picked OKC 51%Hit
- Dec 16OKC 118 @ DEN 117Picked DEN 57%Miss