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Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast

FinalSeries tied 2-2

Away

Nuggets

50-32

101–99

at

Home

Clippers

50-32

DEN 30%LAC 70%

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Intuit Dome · TNT, FanDuel SN SoCal, Altitude 2 Sports

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.

LAC favored DEN favored101 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4LAC50%DEN

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Nuggets
Clippers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game101–99
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–99
  • Q40.0(00:00) [Nuggets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)101–99
  • Q40.0Aaron Gordon makes dunk101–99
  • Q40.1Aaron Gordon offensive rebound99–99
  • Q41.1Nikola Jokic misses 26-foot three point shot99–99
  • Q48.0Michael Porter Jr. enters the game for Peyton Watson99–99
  • Q48.0Nuggets Full timeout99–99
  • Q48.0Ivica Zubac makes tip shot99–99
  • Q48.0Ivica Zubac offensive rebound99–97

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q41:55Norman Powell makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)DEN 96 – 95 LAC · LAC 17% → 44% +26
  2. Q41:11Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 1-foot two point shotDEN 96 – 97 LAC · LAC 40% → 66% +26
  3. Q416.0Nikola Jokic makes 12-foot two point shotDEN 99 – 97 LAC · DEN 48% → 91% +43
  4. Q48.0Ivica Zubac makes tip shotDEN 99 – 99 LAC · LAC 3% → 51% +49
  5. Q40.0Aaron Gordon makes dunkDEN 101 – 99 LAC · DEN 43% → 100% +57

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Clippers 70%

StrongMiss
DEN 30%LAC 70%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.

Market
LAC -6.5
ML DEN +220 / LAC -270
Pre-line forecast
LAC 64%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAC -4.5
LAC 67%
Ratings vs. market
−3.1 pts
LAC: Elo 66.9%, market 70.0%
Fair odds
LAC -234
DEN +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DEN 102.5 – 109.0 LAC
Posted spread, posted total 211.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDENLACWhy
Team rating15791643Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+40+62DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsLAC +123 EloLAC 66.9%
Market-implied ratingsLAC 63.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAC 63.7%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastLAC 70.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Denver Nuggets and LA Clippers compared, with each team's league rank
DENStatLAC
3rd of 30120.8Points scored112.920th of 30
25th of 30116.9Points allowed108.24th of 30
9th of 30+3.9Margin+4.76th of 30
3rd of 30117.8Offense rating113.413th of 30
21st of 30114.0Defense rating108.84th of 30
7th of 30101.6Pace98.923rd of 30
15th of 305–5Last 109–11st of 30
4th of 3024–17Road vs home30–114th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Nuggets

+40 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Clippers

+62 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

NuggetsClippers
1400145015001550160016501700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDENLAC
Against the spread38–4750–35
Last 103–77–3
Favorite27–3629–20
Underdog11–1121–15
Overs–unders48–3740–45
Overs–unders, last 104–64–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DEN 5–6 LAC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.