LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints32
- James HardenAssists11
- Ivica ZubacRebounds13
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints29
- Nikola JokicAssists12
- Nikola JokicRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game110–112
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime110–112
- OT1.0Norman Powell makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot110–112
- OT6.1Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2107–112
- OT6.1Norman Powell enters the game for Kris Dunn107–111
- OT6.1Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2107–111
- OT6.1Kris Dunn loose ball foul107–110
- OT9.1Derrick Jones Jr. enters the game for Norman Powell107–110
- OT9.1Kris Dunn enters the game for Bogdan Bogdanovic107–110
- OT9.1Jamal Murray enters the game for Peyton Watson107–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:11Ivica Zubac makes 3-foot layup (James Harden assists)LAC 96 – 95 DEN · LAC 36% → 62% +26LAC 36% → 62%+26 pts
- Q424.0Russell Westbrook makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)LAC 96 – 98 DEN · DEN 29% → 88% +59DEN 29% → 88%+59 pts
- Q418.1James Harden makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Nicolas Batum assists)LAC 98 – 98 DEN · LAC 9% → 49% +40LAC 9% → 49%+40 pts
- OT59.1Christian Braun makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)LAC 104 – 108 DEN · DEN 65% → 93% +28DEN 65% → 93%+28 pts
- OT27.1James Harden makes 27-foot three point shot (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 107 – 108 DEN · LAC 2% → 29% +27LAC 2% → 29%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -3.5
- ML LAC +130 / DEN -150
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -0.5
- DEN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- DEN: Elo 48.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- DEN -138
- LAC +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 110.5 – 114.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1625 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +69 | +40 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +9 Elo | LAC 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 54.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 120.83rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.2 | Points allowed | 116.925th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.7 | Margin | +3.99th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 117.83rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.8 | Defense rating | 114.021st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3098.9 | Pace | 101.67th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 14th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–35 | 38–44 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–20 | 27–34 |
| Underdog | 19–15 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 40–42 | 48–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 4–4 DEN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.
- Jan 8LAC 103 @ DEN 126Picked LAC 61%Miss
- Dec 13LAC 98 @ DEN 120Picked DEN 72%Hit
- Dec 1DEN 122 @ LAC 126Picked DEN 57%Miss
- Oct 26LAC 109 @ DEN 104Picked DEN 73%Miss
- Apr 4DEN 100 @ LAC 102Picked DEN 56%Miss
- Dec 6DEN 102 @ LAC 111Picked DEN 57%Miss
- Nov 27DEN 113 @ LAC 104Picked LAC 63%Miss
- Nov 14LAC 108 @ DEN 111Picked DEN 79%Hit