Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Michael Porter Jr.Points19
- Nikola JokicAssists7
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds7
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints15
- Reed SheppardAssists7
- Tari EasonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–111
- Q418.1David Roddy makes 7-foot two point shot126–111
- Q429.1Hunter Tyson makes free throw 2 of 2126–109
- Q429.1Hunter Tyson makes free throw 1 of 2125–109
- Q429.1N'Faly Dante shooting foul124–109
- Q445.0David Roddy makes 8-foot two point shot124–109
- Q454.1David Roddy defensive rebound124–107
- Q455.0Zeke Nnaji misses 25-foot three point jumper124–107
- Q41:08Cam Whitmore makes free throw 2 of 2124–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:57Dillon Brooks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)DEN 9 – 11 HOU · HOU 31% → 37% +6HOU 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q15:31Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 16 – 15 HOU · DEN 62% → 68% +6DEN 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q12:04Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)DEN 27 – 21 HOU · DEN 72% → 78% +6DEN 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q153.2Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)DEN 32 – 23 HOU · DEN 78% → 82% +5DEN 78% → 82%+5 pts
- Q244.0Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 63 – 52 HOU · DEN 82% → 87% +5DEN 82% → 87%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -5.5
- ML DEN -240 / HOU +195
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -0.5
- DEN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.7 pts
- DEN: Elo 48.8%, market 67.6%
- Fair odds
- DEN -208
- HOU +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 120.0 – 114.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1595 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +41 | +13 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −24 | DEN crossed 1 time zone and HOU crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +8 Elo | HOU 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 66.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 67.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.7 | Points scored | 114.314th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 109.66th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.8 | Margin | +4.85th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 112.817th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 108.23rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 100.716th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 7th of 3023–17 | Road vs home | 29–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–44 | 43–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–34 | 30–26 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 47–34 | 44–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 2–4 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.