Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Cam WhitmorePoints34
- Reed SheppardAssists5
- Cam WhitmoreRebounds8
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints39
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Luka DoncicRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–140
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–140
- Q47.1Bronny James defensive rebound109–140
- Q410.0David Roddy misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot109–140
- Q424.1Dalton Knecht makes dunk (Trey Jemison III assists)109–140
- Q433.0Jack McVeigh lost ball turnover (Shake Milton steals)109–138
- Q458.0Trey Jemison III makes two point shot109–138
- Q459.0Trey Jemison III offensive rebound109–136
- Q459.0Dalton Knecht misses 3-foot tip shot109–136
- Q41:00Dalton Knecht offensive rebound109–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:51LeBron James makes 26-foot three pointerHOU 6 – 5 LAL · LAL 83% → 87% +4LAL 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q19:07Jalen Green makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotHOU 13 – 7 LAL · HOU 16% → 21% +4HOU 16% → 21%+4 pts
- Q18:16Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)HOU 13 – 12 LAL · LAL 82% → 86% +4LAL 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q16:41Jeff Green makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cam Whitmore assists)HOU 20 – 14 LAL · HOU 17% → 22% +5HOU 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q15:39Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotHOU 22 – 20 LAL · LAL 79% → 84% +4LAL 79% → 84%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -13.5
- ML HOU +700 / LAL -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -4.5
- LAL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −20.7 pts
- LAL: Elo 67.4%, market 88.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -738
- HOU +738 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 107.5 – 121.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1609 | 1600 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −60 | +39 | HOU: Missing Tari Eason −22 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +126 Elo | LAL 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 72.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 88.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 113.519th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 112.312th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.2 | Margin | +1.214th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 113.911th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.8 | Defense rating | 112.715th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.7 | Pace | 99.321st of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–413th of 30 |
| 4th of 3023–16 | Road vs home | 30–103rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−60 Elo- Tari Eason left leg injury−22 Elo
Lakers
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–37 | 46–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–26 | 26–21 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 43–37 | 40–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–3 LAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.