LA Clippers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints39
- James HardenAssists10
- Ivica ZubacRebounds17
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints36
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists9
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds7
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game124–119
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime124–119
- OT0.0Warriors offensive team rebound124–119
- OT1.1Stephen Curry misses 65-foot three point pullup jump shot124–119
- OT3.0James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2124–119
- OT3.0James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2123–119
- OT3.0Brandin Podziemski personal foul122–119
- OT3.0James Harden defensive rebound122–119
- OT5.1Buddy Hield misses 27-foot three point jumper122–119
- OT6.0Derrick Jones Jr. enters the game for Bogdan Bogdanovic122–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:38Stephen Curry makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevon Looney assists)LAC 103 – 103 GS · GS 31% → 53% +22GS 31% → 53%+22 pts
- Q41:56Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three pointer (Gary Payton II assists)LAC 107 – 111 GS · GS 62% → 86% +24GS 62% → 86%+24 pts
- Q456.1Ivica Zubac makes 3-foot alley oop dunk shot (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 111 – 111 GS · LAC 22% → 49% +27LAC 22% → 49%+27 pts
- OT3:51James Harden makes 23-foot three point shot (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 114 – 111 GS · LAC 47% → 68% +21LAC 47% → 68%+21 pts
- OT2:06Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)LAC 119 – 117 GS · GS 12% → 33% +21GS 12% → 33%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- GS -3.5
- ML LAC +140 / GS -170
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1.5
- GS 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.0 pts
- GS: Elo 43.2%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- GS -151
- LAC +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 107.5 – 111.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1619 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +76 | +38 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +48 Elo | LAC 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 51.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 113.719th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.1 | Points allowed | 110.38th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.7 | Margin | +3.410th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.7 | Defense rating | 109.66th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.0 | Pace | 100.518th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 15th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 24–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–35 | 43–38 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 28–20 | 28–28 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 39–42 | 40–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 6–1 GS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.