San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints21
- Stephon CastleAssists5
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds8
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints30
- Draymond GreenAssists8
- Draymond GreenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–111
- Q40.0(00:00) [Spurs] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)114–111
- Q40.1Harrison Barnes makes 27-foot three point shot (Stephon Castle assists)114–111
- Q43.0Julian Champagnie enters the game for Bismack Biyombo111–111
- Q43.0Moses Moody enters the game for Kevon Looney111–111
- Q43.0Spurs Full timeout111–111
- Q43.0Draymond Green makes free throw 2 of 2111–111
- Q43.0Bismack Biyombo enters the game for Julian Champagnie111–110
- Q43.0Kevon Looney enters the game for Moses Moody111–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:06Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot running pullup jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)SA 107 – 105 GS · SA 30% → 59% +29SA 30% → 59%+29 pts
- Q432.1Keldon Johnson makes 3-foot two point shotSA 109 – 109 GS · SA 13% → 45% +31SA 13% → 45%+31 pts
- Q411.0Keldon Johnson makes 3-foot layup (Stephon Castle assists)SA 111 – 109 GS · SA 47% → 95% +48SA 47% → 95%+48 pts
- Q43.0Draymond Green makes free throw 2 of 2SA 111 – 111 GS · GS 6% → 52% +46GS 6% → 52%+46 pts
- Q40.1Harrison Barnes makes 27-foot three point shot (Stephon Castle assists)SA 114 – 111 GS · SA 50% → 100% +50SA 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- GS -17.5
- ML SA +900 / GS -1800
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -10
- GS 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- GS: Elo 83.2%, market 90.5%
- Fair odds
- GS -947
- SA +947 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 108.0 – 125.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | GS and SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −33 | +43 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +278 Elo | GS 83.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 87.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 86.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 90.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 113.916th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 110.68th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.7 | Margin | +3.310th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 113.014th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 109.77th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.517th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3012–26 | Road vs home | 24–1512th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–42 | 42–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–12 | 27–27 |
| Underdog | 25–30 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 46–33 | 40–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–4 GS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.