Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints24
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists7
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds7
Trail Blazers- Jabari WalkerPoints19
- Dalano BantonAssists6
- Donovan ClinganRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–86
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–86
- Q421.1Kevin Knox II bad pass (Justin Minaya steals)103–86
- Q438.1Jabari Walker makes two point shot (Kris Murray assists)103–86
- Q441.2Gui Santos bad pass (Jabari Walker steals)103–84
- Q450.1Braxton Key defensive rebound103–84
- Q450.1Rayan Rupert misses two point shot103–84
- Q459.0Kevin Knox II out of bounds lost ball turnover103–84
- Q41:12Kris Murray makes 3-foot driving dunk103–84
- Q41:13Trayce Jackson-Davis bad pass (Kris Murray steals)103–82
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:32Moses Moody makes 25-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 10 – 12 POR · GS 81% → 85% +4GS 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q14:33Buddy Hield makes 23-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)GS 13 – 16 POR · GS 78% → 83% +5GS 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q12:40Gary Payton II makes 2-foot layup (Stephen Curry assists)GS 16 – 20 POR · GS 77% → 80% +3GS 77% → 80%+3 pts
- Q11:28Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three pointer (Kevon Looney assists)GS 21 – 20 POR · GS 83% → 87% +4GS 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q144.2Buddy Hield makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 24 – 20 POR · GS 87% → 90% +3GS 87% → 90%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- GS -15.5
- ML GS -1400 / POR +750
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -4.5
- GS 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −21.8 pts
- GS: Elo 67.0%, market 88.8%
- Fair odds
- GS -793
- POR +793 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 118.5 – 103.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | −24 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deni Avdija −33, Anfernee Simons −14, Shaedon Sharpe −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +123 Elo | GS 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 78.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 77.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 88.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 111.222nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 114.415th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.2 | Margin | −3.223rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 109.823rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 112.917th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.5 | Pace | 100.715th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 6th of 3023–17 | Road vs home | 21–1816th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−24 Elo- Deni Avdija sprained right thumb−33 Elo
- Anfernee Simons right forearm injury−14 Elo
- Shaedon Sharpe right knee soreness−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–38 | 45–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–28 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 15–10 | 38–29 |
| Overs–unders | 40–40 | 41–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 6–0 POR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.