LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints39
- James HardenAssists7
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints26
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–102
- Q41.0Clippers defensive team rebound105–102
- Q41.0Nikola Jokic misses 25-foot three point shot105–102
- Q43.0Nikola Jokic offensive rebound105–102
- Q45.2Christian Braun misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot105–102
- Q411.0Christian Braun defensive rebound105–102
- Q412.2James Harden misses two point shot105–102
- Q437.1Nikola Jokic bad pass (Kawhi Leonard steals)105–102
- Q454.0Kawhi Leonard makes 21-foot pullup jump shot105–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:45Kawhi Leonard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)LAC 94 – 92 DEN · LAC 44% → 62% +18LAC 44% → 62%+18 pts
- Q44:14Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)LAC 96 – 96 DEN · DEN 30% → 50% +20DEN 30% → 50%+20 pts
- Q42:07Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three pointerLAC 100 – 100 DEN · DEN 23% → 50% +27DEN 23% → 50%+27 pts
- Q41:30Norman Powell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 103 – 100 DEN · LAC 50% → 81% +31LAC 50% → 81%+31 pts
- Q454.0Kawhi Leonard makes 21-foot pullup jump shotLAC 105 – 102 DEN · LAC 65% → 87% +22LAC 65% → 87%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.6% of 341 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -0.5
- ML LAC -110 / DEN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- DEN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- DEN: Elo 50.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- DEN -100
- LAC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 108.5 – 109.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1620 | 1602 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +64 | +48 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +2 Elo | DEN 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 57.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 120.83rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.2 | Points allowed | 116.925th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.7 | Margin | +3.99th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 117.83rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.8 | Defense rating | 114.021st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3098.9 | Pace | 101.67th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 14th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 48–35 | 38–45 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–20 | 27–35 |
| Underdog | 20–15 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 40–43 | 48–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 4–5 DEN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.
- Apr 19LAC 110 @ DEN 112PlayoffsPicked DEN 58%Hit
- Jan 8LAC 103 @ DEN 126Picked LAC 61%Miss
- Dec 13LAC 98 @ DEN 120Picked DEN 72%Hit
- Dec 1DEN 122 @ LAC 126Picked DEN 57%Miss
- Oct 26LAC 109 @ DEN 104Picked DEN 73%Miss
- Apr 4DEN 100 @ LAC 102Picked DEN 56%Miss
- Dec 6DEN 102 @ LAC 111Picked DEN 57%Miss
- Nov 27DEN 113 @ LAC 104Picked LAC 63%Miss