Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints23
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints21
- James HardenAssists9
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game83–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter83–117
- Q410.0shot clock turnover83–117
- Q427.1Jordan Miller defensive rebound83–117
- Q431.0Zeke Nnaji misses 24-foot three point jumper83–117
- Q448.0Patty Mills makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kobe Brown assists)83–117
- Q41:05Hunter Tyson out of bounds lost ball turnover83–114
- Q41:07Cam Christie bad pass (Zeke Nnaji steals)83–114
- Q41:14Cam Christie defensive rebound83–114
- Q41:18Peyton Watson misses 18-foot step back jumpshot83–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:40Kris Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)DEN 17 – 14 LAC · LAC 53% → 60% +6LAC 53% → 60%+6 pts
- Q17:25Aaron Gordon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 20 – 14 LAC · DEN 40% → 47% +6DEN 40% → 47%+6 pts
- Q14:42Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)DEN 22 – 19 LAC · LAC 52% → 59% +7LAC 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q13:05James Harden makes 27-foot three pointerDEN 26 – 22 LAC · LAC 49% → 56% +7LAC 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q12:34James Harden makes 25-foot three pointerDEN 26 – 25 LAC · LAC 56% → 63% +7LAC 56% → 63%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -5.5
- ML DEN +190 / LAC -225
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3
- LAC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- LAC: Elo 61.1%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- LAC -201
- DEN +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 104.0 – 109.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1596 | 1626 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +51 | +65 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +79 Elo | LAC 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 57.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.8 | Points scored | 112.920th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 108.24th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.9 | Margin | +4.76th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 113.413th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 108.84th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 98.923rd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 30–114th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–46 | 49–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–36 | 28–20 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 48–36 | 40–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 5–5 LAC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.
- Apr 21LAC 105 @ DEN 102PlayoffsPicked DEN 50%Miss
- Apr 19LAC 110 @ DEN 112PlayoffsPicked DEN 58%Hit
- Jan 8LAC 103 @ DEN 126Picked LAC 61%Miss
- Dec 13LAC 98 @ DEN 120Picked DEN 72%Hit
- Dec 1DEN 122 @ LAC 126Picked DEN 57%Miss
- Oct 26LAC 109 @ DEN 104Picked DEN 73%Miss
- Apr 4DEN 100 @ LAC 102Picked DEN 56%Miss
- Dec 6DEN 102 @ LAC 111Picked DEN 57%Miss