Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints25
- Nikola JokicAssists8
- Russell WestbrookRebounds10
Clippers- James HardenPoints28
- James HardenAssists8
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–111
- Q46.0Derrick Jones Jr. defensive rebound105–111
- Q49.0Nicolas Batum blocks Aaron Gordon 's 24-foot three point pullup jump shot105–111
- Q413.1Aaron Gordon offensive rebound105–111
- Q415.1Jamal Murray misses 28-foot three point jumper105–111
- Q418.0Nuggets Full timeout105–111
- Q418.0Russell Westbrook defensive rebound105–111
- Q418.1Kawhi Leonard misses free throw 2 of 2105–111
- Q418.1Nikola Jokic enters the game for Peyton Watson105–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q135.1Nicolas Batum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)DEN 27 – 25 LAC · LAC 55% → 62% +7LAC 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q259.1Kawhi Leonard makes 28-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)DEN 52 – 56 LAC · LAC 67% → 74% +7LAC 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q240.2Peyton Watson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 55 – 56 LAC · DEN 26% → 34% +8DEN 26% → 34%+8 pts
- Q311:22Nicolas Batum makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)DEN 59 – 61 LAC · LAC 61% → 69% +8LAC 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q39:49Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 62 – 66 LAC · DEN 19% → 26% +7DEN 19% → 26%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -5.5
- ML DEN +210 / LAC -250
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2.5
- LAC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- LAC: Elo 59.2%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- LAC -221
- DEN +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 103.5 – 109.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1602 | 1620 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | +55 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +64 Elo | LAC 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 61.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.8 | Points scored | 112.920th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 108.24th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.9 | Margin | +4.76th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 113.413th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 108.84th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 98.923rd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 30–114th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–47 | 50–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–36 | 29–22 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 49–38 | 41–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 7–6 LAC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 13.
- Apr 29LAC 115 @ DEN 131PlayoffsPicked LAC 54%Miss
- Apr 26DEN 101 @ LAC 99PlayoffsPicked LAC 70%Miss
- Apr 24DEN 83 @ LAC 117PlayoffsPicked LAC 67%Hit
- Apr 21LAC 105 @ DEN 102PlayoffsPicked DEN 50%Miss
- Apr 19LAC 110 @ DEN 112PlayoffsPicked DEN 58%Hit
- Jan 8LAC 103 @ DEN 126Picked LAC 61%Miss
- Dec 13LAC 98 @ DEN 120Picked DEN 72%Hit
- Dec 1DEN 122 @ LAC 126Picked DEN 57%Miss