LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Ivica ZubacPoints27
- Kawhi LeonardAssists11
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds9
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints43
- Nikola JokicAssists12
- Christian BraunRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–131
- Q42.0Clippers offensive team rebound115–131
- Q42.0Zeke Nnaji blocks Jordan Miller 's 5-foot two point shot115–131
- Q412.1shot clock turnover115–131
- Q436.1Kobe Brown makes 24-foot three pointer (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)115–131
- Q444.1Hunter Tyson makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot112–131
- Q41:05Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot112–129
- Q41:10Jalen Pickett bad pass (Cam Christie steals)109–129
- Q41:22Jordan Miller makes driving layup109–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:24Kris Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 47 – 54 DEN · LAC 28% → 35% +7LAC 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q24:18Kris Dunn makes 24-foot three point shot (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 50 – 56 DEN · LAC 30% → 37% +7LAC 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q21:56Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)LAC 53 – 64 DEN · DEN 69% → 76% +7DEN 69% → 76%+7 pts
- Q21:14Jamal Murray makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)LAC 55 – 67 DEN · DEN 72% → 78% +7DEN 72% → 78%+7 pts
- Q33:32Jamal Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)LAC 80 – 91 DEN · DEN 75% → 83% +8DEN 75% → 83%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -2.5
- ML LAC -130 / DEN +110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1.5
- LAC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- LAC: Elo 55.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -119
- DEN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 106.0 – 103.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1636 | 1586 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +62 | +39 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | LAC crossed 1 time zone and DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +37 Elo | LAC 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 54.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 120.83rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.2 | Points allowed | 116.925th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.7 | Margin | +3.99th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 117.83rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.8 | Defense rating | 114.021st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3098.9 | Pace | 101.67th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 14th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–36 | 39–47 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–21 | 27–36 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders | 40–46 | 48–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 6–6 DEN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.
- Apr 26DEN 101 @ LAC 99PlayoffsPicked LAC 70%Miss
- Apr 24DEN 83 @ LAC 117PlayoffsPicked LAC 67%Hit
- Apr 21LAC 105 @ DEN 102PlayoffsPicked DEN 50%Miss
- Apr 19LAC 110 @ DEN 112PlayoffsPicked DEN 58%Hit
- Jan 8LAC 103 @ DEN 126Picked LAC 61%Miss
- Dec 13LAC 98 @ DEN 120Picked DEN 72%Hit
- Dec 1DEN 122 @ LAC 126Picked DEN 57%Miss
- Oct 26LAC 109 @ DEN 104Picked DEN 73%Miss