Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints42
- Nikola JokicAssists6
- Nikola JokicRebounds22
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints33
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–119
- Q40.0Thunder offensive team rebound121–119
- Q40.0Jalen Williams misses 55-foot three point pullup jump shot121–119
- Q42.8Aaron Gordon makes 25-foot three point shot (Russell Westbrook assists)121–119
- Q47.1Christian Braun defensive rebound118–119
- Q49.1Chet Holmgren misses free throw 2 of 2118–119
- Q49.1Thunder offensive team rebound118–119
- Q49.1Chet Holmgren misses free throw 1 of 2118–119
- Q49.1Russell Westbrook personal foul118–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:07Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three point jumperDEN 114 – 115 OKC · DEN 7% → 32% +25DEN 7% → 32%+25 pts
- Q413.2Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2DEN 114 – 116 OKC · OKC 80% → 94% +15OKC 80% → 94%+15 pts
- Q412.2Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2DEN 116 – 117 OKC · DEN 5% → 20% +15DEN 5% → 20%+15 pts
- Q411.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 1-foot driving dunk (Alex Caruso assists)DEN 116 – 119 OKC · OKC 81% → >99% +18OKC 81% → >99%+18 pts
- Q42.8Aaron Gordon makes 25-foot three point shot (Russell Westbrook assists)DEN 121 – 119 OKC · DEN 4% → >99% +95DEN 4% → >99%+95 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -10.5
- ML DEN +360 / OKC -475
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7
- OKC 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 75.7%, market 79.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -380
- DEN +380 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 109.5 – 120.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1612 | 1753 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | +50 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +197 Elo | OKC 75.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 74.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 74.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 79.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.8 | Points scored | 120.04th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 107.53rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.9 | Margin | +12.51st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 117.74th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 105.41st of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 35–61st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–48 | 58–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–36 | 55–28 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 51–38 | 48–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 3–5 OKC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Mar 10DEN 140 @ OKC 127Picked OKC 76%Miss
- Mar 9DEN 103 @ OKC 127Picked OKC 72%Hit
- Nov 6OKC 122 @ DEN 124Picked OKC 69%Miss
- Oct 24OKC 102 @ DEN 87Picked DEN 54%Miss
- Jan 31DEN 100 @ OKC 105Picked OKC 68%Hit
- Dec 29OKC 119 @ DEN 93Picked OKC 51%Hit
- Dec 16OKC 118 @ DEN 117Picked DEN 57%Miss
- Oct 29DEN 128 @ OKC 95Picked DEN 58%Hit