LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints22
- James HardenAssists13
- Ivica ZubacRebounds14
Nuggets- Aaron GordonPoints22
- Nikola JokicAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–120
- Q423.0Cam Christie makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kobe Brown assists)101–120
- Q437.0Julian Strawther makes 29-foot three pointer98–120
- Q442.2Hunter Tyson offensive rebound98–117
- Q447.1Jalen Pickett misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot98–117
- Q456.1Peyton Watson offensive rebound98–117
- Q41:00Julian Strawther misses driving floating jump shot98–117
- Q41:09Zeke Nnaji offensive rebound98–117
- Q41:12Hunter Tyson misses 22-foot three point jumper98–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:32Russell Westbrook makes 22-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)LAC 26 – 28 DEN · DEN 51% → 58% +7DEN 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q27:47Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)LAC 30 – 34 DEN · DEN 56% → 63% +7DEN 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q27:06Kawhi Leonard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nicolas Batum assists)LAC 33 – 37 DEN · LAC 29% → 36% +7LAC 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q26:16Russell Westbrook makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 36 – 42 DEN · DEN 61% → 68% +7DEN 61% → 68%+7 pts
- Q25:10James Harden makes 25-foot three pointerLAC 41 – 44 DEN · LAC 31% → 39% +7LAC 31% → 39%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -1.5
- ML LAC +110 / DEN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- DEN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 49.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -119
- LAC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 102.5 – 104.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 206.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1626 | 1596 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +58 | +46 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | LAC crossed 1 time zone and DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +5 Elo | LAC 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 120.83rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.2 | Points allowed | 116.925th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.7 | Margin | +3.99th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 117.83rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.8 | Defense rating | 114.021st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3098.9 | Pace | 101.67th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 14th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 51–37 | 40–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–22 | 27–36 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 42–46 | 50–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 7–7 DEN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.
- May 1DEN 105 @ LAC 111PlayoffsPicked LAC 69%Hit
- Apr 29LAC 115 @ DEN 131PlayoffsPicked LAC 54%Miss
- Apr 26DEN 101 @ LAC 99PlayoffsPicked LAC 70%Miss
- Apr 24DEN 83 @ LAC 117PlayoffsPicked LAC 67%Hit
- Apr 21LAC 105 @ DEN 102PlayoffsPicked DEN 50%Miss
- Apr 19LAC 110 @ DEN 112PlayoffsPicked DEN 58%Hit
- Jan 8LAC 103 @ DEN 126Picked LAC 61%Miss
- Dec 13LAC 98 @ DEN 120Picked DEN 72%Hit