Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Jonathan KumingaPoints18
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists6
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds7
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints24
- Julius RandleAssists11
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–117
- Q420.2Kevin Knox II makes free throw 2 of 293–117
- Q420.2Warriors offensive team rebound92–117
- Q420.2Kevin Knox II misses free throw 1 of 292–117
- Q420.2Luka Garza shooting foul92–117
- Q432.1Leonard Miller makes 2-foot layup (Josh Minott assists)92–117
- Q450.0Gui Santos out of bounds lost ball turnover92–115
- Q458.0Timberwolves offensive team rebound92–115
- Q458.0shot clock turnover92–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:33Jaden McDaniels makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)GS 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 81% → 85% +4MIN 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q36:57Buddy Hield makes 22-foot three point shot (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 55 – 62 MIN · GS 8% → 13% +5GS 8% → 13%+5 pts
- Q36:35Naz Reid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)GS 55 – 65 MIN · MIN 87% → 92% +5MIN 87% → 92%+5 pts
- Q36:14Jonathan Kuminga makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 58 – 65 MIN · GS 8% → 13% +5GS 8% → 13%+5 pts
- Q35:56Donte DiVincenzo makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)GS 58 – 68 MIN · MIN 87% → 92% +5MIN 87% → 92%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -11.5
- ML GS +400 / MIN -525
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5.5
- MIN 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 71.1%, market 80.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -420
- GS +420 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 95.0 – 106.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 201.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1594 | 1649 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −43 | +22 | GS: Missing Stephen Curry −51 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +157 Elo | MIN 71.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 67.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 80.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 114.313th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 109.35th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +5.04th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 114.59th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 109.56th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.4 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−43 Elo- Stephen Curry left hamstring strain−51 Elo
Timberwolves
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–43 | 43–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–31 | 28–37 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 44–46 | 47–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 4–4 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- May 6GS 99 @ MIN 88PlayoffsPicked MIN 68%Miss
- Jan 15GS 116 @ MIN 115Picked MIN 69%Miss
- Dec 21GS 113 @ MIN 103Picked MIN 61%Miss
- Dec 8MIN 106 @ GS 114Picked GS 52%Hit
- Dec 6MIN 107 @ GS 90Picked MIN 52%Hit
- Mar 24GS 110 @ MIN 114Picked MIN 62%Hit
- Nov 14MIN 104 @ GS 101Picked MIN 62%Hit
- Nov 12MIN 116 @ GS 110Picked MIN 61%Hit