Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Rudy GobertPoints27
- Anthony EdwardsAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds24
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints28
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Luka DoncicRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–96
- Q47.0shot clock turnover103–96
- Q418.1Naz Reid offensive rebound103–96
- Q422.1Julius Randle misses free throw 2 of 2103–96
- Q422.1Julius Randle makes free throw 1 of 2103–96
- Q422.1Gabe Vincent personal take foul102–96
- Q433.1LeBron James makes driving layup (Luka Doncic assists)102–96
- Q437.1Julius Randle personal foul102–94
- Q438.0Lakers Full timeout102–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:20Austin Reaves makes 27-foot three pointerMIN 84 – 85 LAL · LAL 48% → 63% +15LAL 48% → 63%+15 pts
- Q43:08LeBron James makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)MIN 93 – 91 LAL · LAL 19% → 39% +20LAL 19% → 39%+20 pts
- Q42:45Julius Randle makes driving layup (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 95 – 91 LAL · MIN 62% → 77% +15MIN 62% → 77%+15 pts
- Q41:42Rui Hachimura makes 25-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)MIN 97 – 94 LAL · LAL 6% → 23% +17LAL 6% → 23%+17 pts
- Q41:22Mike Conley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 100 – 94 LAL · MIN 80% → 96% +16MIN 80% → 96%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -5.5
- ML MIN +210 / LAL -250
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2
- LAL 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −27.2 pts
- LAL: Elo 41.7%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- LAL -221
- MIN +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 102.0 – 107.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1660 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | +16 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +58 Elo | MIN 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 113.419th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 112.210th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +1.214th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 113.912th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 112.717th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.9 | Pace | 99.321st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 31–103rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–44 | 48–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–36 | 28–22 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 47–39 | 43–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 8–4 LAL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 12.
- Apr 27LAL 113 @ MIN 116PlayoffsPicked MIN 57%Hit
- Apr 25LAL 104 @ MIN 116PlayoffsPicked MIN 61%Hit
- Apr 22MIN 85 @ LAL 94PlayoffsPicked LAL 69%Hit
- Apr 19MIN 117 @ LAL 95PlayoffsPicked LAL 64%Miss
- Feb 27MIN 102 @ LAL 111Picked LAL 67%Hit
- Dec 13LAL 87 @ MIN 97Picked MIN 76%Hit
- Dec 2LAL 80 @ MIN 109Picked MIN 72%Hit
- Oct 22MIN 103 @ LAL 110Picked LAL 50%Hit