Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Brice SensabaughPoints22
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists7
- Oscar TshiebweRebounds12
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints43
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–116
- Q47.0Jaden McDaniels traveling105–116
- Q423.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound105–116
- Q424.1Rudy Gobert blocks Brice Sensabaugh 's 4-foot two point shot105–116
- Q424.1Brice Sensabaugh offensive rebound105–116
- Q427.2Micah Potter misses 23-foot three point jumper105–116
- Q435.0Oscar Tshiebwe defensive rebound105–116
- Q437.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot105–116
- Q459.2Oscar Tshiebwe bad pass (Jaden McDaniels steals)105–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:45Svi Mykhailiuk makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 38 – 37 MIN · UTAH 7% → 10% +3UTAH 7% → 10%+3 pts
- Q26:31Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)UTAH 38 – 40 MIN · MIN 90% → 93% +3MIN 90% → 93%+3 pts
- Q22:42Brice Sensabaugh makes 27-foot three pointer (Micah Potter assists)UTAH 45 – 42 MIN · UTAH 10% → 15% +4UTAH 10% → 15%+4 pts
- Q38:10Donte DiVincenzo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)UTAH 56 – 61 MIN · MIN 89% → 93% +4MIN 89% → 93%+4 pts
- Q35:57Anthony Edwards makes driving layupUTAH 63 – 67 MIN · MIN 89% → 91% +3MIN 89% → 91%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 95%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
- Market
- MIN -23.5
- ML UTAH +2000 / MIN -7500
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 94%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -15.5
- MIN 92%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 92.3%, market 95.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -2072
- UTAH +2072 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 105.0 – 128.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1316 | 1644 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | +36 | UTAH: Missing Walker Kessler −12, Elijah Harkless −3 · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +431 Elo | MIN 92.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 93.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 93.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 95.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30112.0 | Points scored | 114.315th of 30 |
| 30th of 30121.3 | Points allowed | 109.35th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.3 | Margin | +4.94th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 114.59th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.0 | Defense rating | 109.67th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.1 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 28th of 307–33 | Road vs home | 24–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−19 Elo- Walker Kessler nasal fracture−12 Elo
- Elijah Harkless left groin strain−3 Elo
Timberwolves
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–40 | 39–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 26–35 |
| Underdog | 39–38 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 48–33 | 45–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–6 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.