Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Jaden McDanielsPoints25
- Anthony EdwardsAssists9
- Jaden McDanielsRebounds9
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints37
- LeBron JamesAssists3
- Luka DoncicRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–95
- Q414.0Dalton Knecht makes 25-foot three pointer (Jordan Goodwin assists)117–95
- Q426.1Dalton Knecht defensive rebound117–92
- Q429.0Josh Minott misses 26-foot three point jumper117–92
- Q445.1Leonard Miller defensive rebound117–92
- Q448.1Alex Len misses 8-foot two point shot117–92
- Q41:03Luka Garza makes dunk117–92
- Q41:03Luka Garza offensive rebound115–92
- Q41:05Terrence Shannon Jr. misses driving layup115–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:38Mike Conley makes 22-foot running pullup jump shot (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)MIN 38 – 33 LAL · MIN 43% → 51% +8MIN 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q26:09Naz Reid makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 42 – 34 LAL · MIN 52% → 59% +8MIN 52% → 59%+8 pts
- Q23:35Naz Reid makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 51 – 39 LAL · MIN 63% → 71% +7MIN 63% → 71%+7 pts
- Q22:18Julius Randle makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 56 – 43 LAL · MIN 67% → 74% +7MIN 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q20.1Donte DiVincenzo makes 30-foot three pointerMIN 59 – 48 LAL · MIN 63% → 71% +8MIN 63% → 71%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -4.5
- ML MIN +170 / LAL -200
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 43%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1
- LAL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.4 pts
- LAL: Elo 45.9%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -180
- MIN +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 105.5 – 110.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1645 | 1595 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | +23 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +29 Elo | MIN 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 113.419th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 112.210th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +1.214th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 113.912th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 112.717th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.9 | Pace | 99.321st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 31–103rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–43 | 47–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–36 | 27–21 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 20–14 |
| Overs–unders | 45–37 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–3 LAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 8.
- Feb 27MIN 102 @ LAL 111Picked LAL 67%Hit
- Dec 13LAL 87 @ MIN 97Picked MIN 76%Hit
- Dec 2LAL 80 @ MIN 109Picked MIN 72%Hit
- Oct 22MIN 103 @ LAL 110Picked LAL 50%Hit
- Apr 7MIN 127 @ LAL 117Picked MIN 51%Hit
- Mar 10MIN 109 @ LAL 120Picked LAL 63%Hit
- Dec 30LAL 106 @ MIN 108Picked MIN 66%Hit
- Dec 21LAL 111 @ MIN 118Picked MIN 71%Hit