Los Angeles Lakers at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Dalton KnechtPoints27
- Markieff MorrisAssists6
- Dalton KnechtRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Dalano BantonPoints23
- Dalano BantonAssists7
- Donovan ClinganRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game81–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter81–109
- Q49.1Rayan Rupert defensive rebound81–109
- Q414.1Christian Koloko misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot81–109
- Q418.1Christian Koloko offensive rebound81–109
- Q421.1Shake Milton misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot81–109
- Q431.1Rayan Rupert makes 6-foot dunk81–109
- Q434.1Rayan Rupert defensive rebound81–107
- Q437.1Sidy Cissoko blocks Dalton Knecht 's 9-foot driving layup81–107
- Q459.0Trey Jemison III defensive rebound81–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q139.1Rayan Rupert makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sidy Cissoko assists)LAL 22 – 27 POR · POR 68% → 74% +6POR 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q124.1Jordan Goodwin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bronny James assists)LAL 25 – 27 POR · LAL 26% → 32% +6LAL 26% → 32%+6 pts
- Q27:06Justin Minaya makes 23-foot three point jumper (Sidy Cissoko assists)LAL 37 – 42 POR · POR 67% → 74% +7POR 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q25:47Dalton Knecht makes 30-foot three pointerLAL 40 – 45 POR · LAL 20% → 26% +6LAL 20% → 26%+6 pts
- Q25:11Matisse Thybulle makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Donovan Clingan assists)LAL 42 – 48 POR · POR 69% → 76% +7POR 69% → 76%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- POR -5.5
- ML LAL +175 / POR -210
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -1.5
- POR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- POR: Elo 55.1%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- POR -186
- LAL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 105.5 – 111.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −189 | −37 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deni Avdija −36, Anfernee Simons −17, Shaedon Sharpe −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +35 Elo | POR 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 54.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 110.922nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 114.316th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −3.423rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 109.523rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 112.817th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.4 | Pace | 100.715th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 15th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 21–1918th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−189 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−37 Elo- Deni Avdija right thumb injury−36 Elo
- Anfernee Simons right forearm injury−17 Elo
- Shaedon Sharpe right knee soreness−14 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–34 | 45–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–21 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 38–30 |
| Overs–unders | 41–40 | 41–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 6–0 POR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.