Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints38
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- LeBron JamesRebounds10
Timberwolves- Jaden McDanielsPoints30
- Anthony EdwardsAssists8
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–116
- Q47.1shot clock turnover104–116
- Q430.1Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound104–116
- Q433.1Dalton Knecht misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot104–116
- Q438.2Shake Milton enters the game for Luka Doncic104–116
- Q438.2Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Rui Hachimura104–116
- Q438.2Alex Len enters the game for LeBron James104–116
- Q438.2Bronny James enters the game for Dorian Finney-Smith104–116
- Q438.2Dalton Knecht enters the game for Austin Reaves104–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:37Donte DiVincenzo makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 86 – 91 MIN · MIN 64% → 75% +12MIN 64% → 75%+12 pts
- Q45:59LeBron James makes 27-foot three point shot (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 99 – 100 MIN · LAL 24% → 40% +16LAL 24% → 40%+16 pts
- Q44:37Luka Doncic makes 6-foot two point shotLAL 103 – 103 MIN · LAL 34% → 46% +13LAL 34% → 46%+13 pts
- Q44:19Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 103 – 106 MIN · MIN 53% → 73% +19MIN 53% → 73%+19 pts
- Q43:04Naz Reid makes 27-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)LAL 103 – 109 MIN · MIN 76% → 90% +15MIN 76% → 90%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -4.5
- ML LAL +150 / MIN -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3.5
- MIN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 63.1%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -159
- LAL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 101.5 – 106.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 207.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1592 | 1648 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | +28 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −24 | LAL crossed 2 time zones and MIN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +93 Elo | MIN 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 50.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.4 | Points scored | 114.313th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 109.35th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +5.04th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 114.59th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 109.56th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.3 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 48–36 | 40–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–22 | 26–36 |
| Underdog | 20–14 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 41–43 | 45–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 4–6 MIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.
- Apr 22MIN 85 @ LAL 94PlayoffsPicked LAL 69%Hit
- Apr 19MIN 117 @ LAL 95PlayoffsPicked LAL 64%Miss
- Feb 27MIN 102 @ LAL 111Picked LAL 67%Hit
- Dec 13LAL 87 @ MIN 97Picked MIN 76%Hit
- Dec 2LAL 80 @ MIN 109Picked MIN 72%Hit
- Oct 22MIN 103 @ LAL 110Picked LAL 50%Hit
- Apr 7MIN 127 @ LAL 117Picked MIN 51%Hit
- Mar 10MIN 109 @ LAL 120Picked LAL 63%Hit