Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints27
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds6
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints31
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Luka DoncicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game85–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter85–94
- Q40.0Timberwolves offensive team rebound85–94
- Q41.2Anthony Edwards misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot85–94
- Q417.0Lakers delay of game violation85–94
- Q417.0shot clock turnover85–94
- Q441.0Anthony Edwards makes 2-foot driving dunk85–94
- Q449.0Luka Doncic makes two point shot (LeBron James assists)83–94
- Q41:07Naz Reid makes free throw 2 of 283–92
- Q41:07Naz Reid makes free throw 1 of 282–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:50Jaxson Hayes makes alley oop layup (LeBron James assists)MIN 2 – 2 LAL · LAL 65% → 69% +4LAL 65% → 69%+4 pts
- Q19:42Julius Randle makes driving layupMIN 4 – 2 LAL · MIN 32% → 35% +4MIN 32% → 35%+4 pts
- Q19:06Luka Doncic makes 28-foot three pointerMIN 4 – 5 LAL · LAL 64% → 70% +6LAL 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q16:55Julius Randle makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 8 – 13 LAL · MIN 18% → 23% +5MIN 18% → 23%+5 pts
- Q15:07Gabe Vincent makes 24-foot three point shot (Austin Reaves assists)MIN 8 – 18 LAL · LAL 80% → 85% +4LAL 80% → 85%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -5.5
- ML MIN +210 / LAL -250
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2
- LAL 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −27.7 pts
- LAL: Elo 41.2%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- LAL -221
- MIN +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 103.5 – 109.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1660 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | +21 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +62 Elo | MIN 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 113.419th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 112.210th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +1.214th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 113.912th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 112.717th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.9 | Pace | 99.321st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 31–103rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–43 | 47–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–36 | 27–22 |
| Underdog | 14–7 | 20–14 |
| Overs–unders | 45–38 | 41–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–3 LAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Apr 19MIN 117 @ LAL 95PlayoffsPicked LAL 64%Miss
- Feb 27MIN 102 @ LAL 111Picked LAL 67%Hit
- Dec 13LAL 87 @ MIN 97Picked MIN 76%Hit
- Dec 2LAL 80 @ MIN 109Picked MIN 72%Hit
- Oct 22MIN 103 @ LAL 110Picked LAL 50%Hit
- Apr 7MIN 127 @ LAL 117Picked MIN 51%Hit
- Mar 10MIN 109 @ LAL 120Picked LAL 63%Hit
- Dec 30LAL 106 @ MIN 108Picked MIN 66%Hit