Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints38
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- LeBron JamesRebounds12
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints43
- Anthony EdwardsAssists6
- Jaden McDanielsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–116
- Q40.1Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound113–116
- Q40.2Austin Reaves misses 23-foot three point jumper113–116
- Q410.1Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2113–116
- Q410.1Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2113–115
- Q410.1LeBron James shooting foul113–114
- Q410.1(00:10.7) [Timberwolves] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Timberwolves] retain their timeout113–114
- Q410.1Lakers Full timeout113–114
- Q430.1LeBron James bad pass (Jaden McDaniels steals)113–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:32Rui Hachimura makes 25-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 107 – 105 MIN · LAL 41% → 63% +23LAL 41% → 63%+23 pts
- Q43:21Naz Reid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)LAL 107 – 108 MIN · MIN 36% → 60% +23MIN 36% → 60%+23 pts
- Q41:55Austin Reaves makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 110 – 111 MIN · LAL 14% → 38% +24LAL 14% → 38%+24 pts
- Q41:29Dorian Finney-Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 113 – 111 MIN · LAL 37% → 71% +34LAL 37% → 71%+34 pts
- Q439.1Jaden McDaniels makes dunk (Naz Reid assists)LAL 113 – 113 MIN · MIN 19% → 51% +32MIN 19% → 51%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -2.5
- ML LAL +120 / MIN -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -4
- MIN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 65.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -130
- LAL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 103.0 – 105.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 208.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1584 | 1656 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | +30 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +111 Elo | MIN 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.4 | Points scored | 114.313th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 109.35th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +5.04th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 114.59th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 109.56th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.3 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 48–37 | 41–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–22 | 27–36 |
| Underdog | 20–15 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 42–43 | 46–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 4–7 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.
- Apr 25LAL 104 @ MIN 116PlayoffsPicked MIN 61%Hit
- Apr 22MIN 85 @ LAL 94PlayoffsPicked LAL 69%Hit
- Apr 19MIN 117 @ LAL 95PlayoffsPicked LAL 64%Miss
- Feb 27MIN 102 @ LAL 111Picked LAL 67%Hit
- Dec 13LAL 87 @ MIN 97Picked MIN 76%Hit
- Dec 2LAL 80 @ MIN 109Picked MIN 72%Hit
- Oct 22MIN 103 @ LAL 110Picked LAL 50%Hit
- Apr 7MIN 127 @ LAL 117Picked MIN 51%Hit