Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Buddy HieldPoints33
- Stephen CurryAssists7
- Stephen CurryRebounds10
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints24
- Alperen SengunAssists5
- Alperen SengunRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–89
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–89
- Q48.1Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Stephen Curry103–89
- Q48.1Gui Santos enters the game for Draymond Green103–89
- Q48.1Jonathan Kuminga enters the game for Jimmy Butler III103–89
- Q48.1Quinten Post enters the game for Buddy Hield103–89
- Q48.1Pat Spencer enters the game for Brandin Podziemski103–89
- Q48.1Warriors Full timeout103–89
- Q414.1Fred VanVleet makes 35-foot three pointer103–89
- Q418.1Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)103–86
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:53Tari Eason makes 22-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)GS 33 – 29 HOU · HOU 36% → 44% +8HOU 36% → 44%+8 pts
- Q35:20Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three pointerGS 61 – 53 HOU · GS 64% → 73% +9GS 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q32:43Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)GS 63 – 60 HOU · HOU 31% → 42% +11HOU 31% → 42%+11 pts
- Q31:46Jimmy Butler III makes 23-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)GS 66 – 60 HOU · GS 59% → 70% +11GS 59% → 70%+11 pts
- Q48:18Buddy Hield makes 24-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 80 – 70 HOU · GS 79% → 88% +9GS 79% → 88%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2.5
- ML GS +115 / HOU -135
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3
- HOU 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- GS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 101.5 – 104.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 205.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1589 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +10 | +24 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −24 | GS crossed 2 time zones and HOU crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +79 Elo | HOU 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 114.313th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 109.86th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +4.57th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 112.816th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 108.43rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.4 | Pace | 100.715th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 29–126th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–43 | 47–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–31 | 32–27 |
| Underdog | 16–12 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders | 44–44 | 48–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 9–5 HOU in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.
- May 2HOU 115 @ GS 107PlayoffsPicked GS 68%Miss
- Apr 30GS 116 @ HOU 131PlayoffsPicked HOU 62%Hit
- Apr 28HOU 106 @ GS 109PlayoffsPicked GS 59%Hit
- Apr 26HOU 93 @ GS 104PlayoffsPicked GS 54%Hit
- Apr 23GS 94 @ HOU 109PlayoffsPicked HOU 61%Hit
- Apr 20GS 95 @ HOU 85PlayoffsPicked HOU 52%Miss
- Apr 6HOU 106 @ GS 96Picked GS 66%Miss
- Feb 13GS 105 @ HOU 98Picked GS 51%Hit