Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints31
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists6
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds8
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints26
- Fred VanVleetAssists7
- Steven AdamsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–85
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–85
- Q40.0(00:00) [Warriors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)95–85
- Q412.2Gui Santos enters the game for Stephen Curry95–85
- Q412.2Buddy Hield enters the game for Draymond Green95–85
- Q412.2Quinten Post enters the game for Jimmy Butler III95–85
- Q412.2Dillon Brooks personal take foul95–85
- Q414.1Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)95–85
- Q418.0Amen Thompson offensive rebound95–82
- Q421.0Fred VanVleet misses 26-foot three point jumper95–82
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:34Jabari Smith Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)GS 76 – 71 HOU · HOU 15% → 26% +11HOU 15% → 26%+11 pts
- Q46:49Amen Thompson makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotGS 76 – 73 HOU · HOU 25% → 35% +10HOU 25% → 35%+10 pts
- Q45:11Stephen Curry makes 34-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 82 – 75 HOU · GS 73% → 86% +13GS 73% → 86%+13 pts
- Q42:38Fred VanVleet makes 24-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)GS 84 – 80 HOU · HOU 6% → 19% +13HOU 6% → 19%+13 pts
- Q42:23Moses Moody makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 87 – 80 HOU · GS 82% → 95% +13GS 82% → 95%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -1.5
- ML GS +100 / HOU -120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 36%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1.5
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 56.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- GS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 106.0 – 107.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | +6 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | GS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +44 Elo | HOU 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 64.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 114.313th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 109.86th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +4.57th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 112.816th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 108.43rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.4 | Pace | 100.715th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 29–126th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–39 | 43–39 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–29 | 30–26 |
| Underdog | 15–10 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 45–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 6–2 HOU in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
- Apr 6HOU 106 @ GS 96Picked GS 66%Miss
- Feb 13GS 105 @ HOU 98Picked GS 51%Hit
- Dec 11GS 90 @ HOU 91Picked HOU 58%Hit
- Dec 5HOU 93 @ GS 99Picked HOU 62%Miss
- Nov 2GS 127 @ HOU 121Picked HOU 63%Miss
- Apr 4GS 133 @ HOU 110Picked HOU 54%Miss
- Nov 20HOU 116 @ GS 121Picked GS 56%Hit
- Oct 29GS 106 @ HOU 95Picked HOU 54%Miss