Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Moses MoodyPoints25
- Stephen CurryAssists7
- Moses MoodyRebounds9
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints26
- Alperen SengunAssists9
- Alperen SengunRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–131
- Q413.1Moses Moody makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot116–131
- Q418.0Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound113–131
- Q419.0Aaron Holiday misses free throw 2 of 2113–131
- Q419.0Aaron Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2113–131
- Q419.0Trayce Jackson-Davis personal foul113–130
- Q433.0Reed Sheppard defensive rebound113–130
- Q435.0Moses Moody misses 11-foot two point shot113–130
- Q444.1Jeff Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)113–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:54Brandin Podziemski makes 27-foot three pointer (Stephen Curry assists)GS 5 – 3 HOU · GS 36% → 42% +6GS 36% → 42%+6 pts
- Q110:21Draymond Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 8 – 5 HOU · GS 38% → 44% +6GS 38% → 44%+6 pts
- Q19:36Jalen Green makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Alperen Sengun assists)GS 8 – 10 HOU · HOU 60% → 66% +6HOU 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q16:54Quinten Post makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)GS 11 – 20 HOU · GS 17% → 21% +4GS 17% → 21%+4 pts
- Q15:32Dillon Brooks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)GS 13 – 25 HOU · HOU 79% → 83% +5HOU 79% → 83%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML GS +155 / HOU -185
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -0.5
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -166
- GS +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 99.0 – 103.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 202.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +11 | GS: Missing Jonathan Kuminga −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −24 | GS crossed 2 time zones and HOU crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +11 Elo | HOU 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 51.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 114.313th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 109.86th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +4.57th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 112.816th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 108.43rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.4 | Pace | 100.715th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 29–126th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+21 Elo- Jonathan Kuminga illness−1 Elo
Rockets
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–41 | 45–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–30 | 31–27 |
| Underdog | 16–11 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders | 42–44 | 46–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 9–3 HOU in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.
- Apr 28HOU 106 @ GS 109PlayoffsPicked GS 59%Hit
- Apr 26HOU 93 @ GS 104PlayoffsPicked GS 54%Hit
- Apr 23GS 94 @ HOU 109PlayoffsPicked HOU 61%Hit
- Apr 20GS 95 @ HOU 85PlayoffsPicked HOU 52%Miss
- Apr 6HOU 106 @ GS 96Picked GS 66%Miss
- Feb 13GS 105 @ HOU 98Picked GS 51%Hit
- Dec 11GS 90 @ HOU 91Picked HOU 58%Hit
- Dec 5HOU 93 @ GS 99Picked HOU 62%Miss