Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints31
- Fred VanVleetAssists6
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Warriors- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints27
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists6
- Draymond GreenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–109
- Q40.0Rockets offensive team rebound106–109
- Q40.1Fred VanVleet misses 28-foot three point shot106–109
- Q44.0Jimmy Butler III makes free throw 2 of 2106–109
- Q44.0Amen Thompson enters the game for Jabari Smith Jr.106–108
- Q44.0Jimmy Butler III makes free throw 1 of 2106–108
- Q44.0Jabari Smith Jr. personal foul106–107
- Q44.0Jimmy Butler III defensive rebound106–107
- Q46.1Alperen Sengun misses 11-foot two point shot106–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:05Stephen Curry makes 24-foot three pointer (Brandin Podziemski assists)HOU 96 – 95 GS · GS 31% → 48% +17GS 31% → 48%+17 pts
- Q44:20Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three pointer (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 101 – 97 GS · HOU 54% → 73% +19HOU 54% → 73%+19 pts
- Q43:32Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Stephen Curry assists)HOU 101 – 102 GS · GS 37% → 60% +23GS 37% → 60%+23 pts
- Q41:20Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 104 – 104 GS · HOU 16% → 48% +32HOU 16% → 48%+32 pts
- Q440.1Alperen Sengun makes 7-foot two point shotHOU 106 – 107 GS · HOU 9% → 32% +23HOU 9% → 32%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- GS -3.5
- ML HOU +135 / GS -165
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -2
- GS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- GS: Elo 57.4%, market 59.4%
- Fair odds
- GS -146
- HOU +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 100.0 – 103.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 203.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +10 | +20 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +52 Elo | GS 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 60.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 59.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 113.817th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 110.58th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.5 | Margin | +3.310th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 113.014th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.4 | Defense rating | 109.77th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.7 | Pace | 100.418th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 8th of 3023–17 | Road vs home | 24–1713th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–41 | 45–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–27 | 29–29 |
| Underdog | 13–14 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 45–40 | 41–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–8 GS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.
- Apr 26HOU 93 @ GS 104PlayoffsPicked GS 54%Hit
- Apr 23GS 94 @ HOU 109PlayoffsPicked HOU 61%Hit
- Apr 20GS 95 @ HOU 85PlayoffsPicked HOU 52%Miss
- Apr 6HOU 106 @ GS 96Picked GS 66%Miss
- Feb 13GS 105 @ HOU 98Picked GS 51%Hit
- Dec 11GS 90 @ HOU 91Picked HOU 58%Hit
- Dec 5HOU 93 @ GS 99Picked HOU 62%Miss
- Nov 2GS 127 @ HOU 121Picked HOU 63%Miss