Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Buddy HieldPoints24
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists8
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds11
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints23
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–88
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–88
- Q421.1Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound99–88
- Q425.1Naz Reid misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot99–88
- Q433.0Jimmy Butler III makes tip shot99–88
- Q433.0Jimmy Butler III offensive rebound97–88
- Q434.1Draymond Green misses layup97–88
- Q447.0Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 297–88
- Q447.0Julius Randle makes free throw 1 of 297–87
- Q447.0Gary Payton II personal foul97–86
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:22Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotGS 25 – 20 MIN · GS 40% → 47% +7GS 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q28:20Draymond Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)GS 30 – 20 MIN · GS 52% → 60% +7GS 52% → 60%+7 pts
- Q27:58Draymond Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 33 – 20 MIN · GS 60% → 67% +7GS 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q27:04Draymond Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 36 – 22 MIN · GS 63% → 70% +7GS 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q311:39Gary Payton II makes 22-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)GS 47 – 31 MIN · GS 74% → 81% +7GS 74% → 81%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -5.5
- ML GS +200 / MIN -240
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 69.5%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -212
- GS +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 102.5 – 108.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 210.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1577 | 1667 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +30 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +143 Elo | MIN 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 114.313th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 109.35th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +5.04th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 114.59th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 109.56th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.4 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–43 | 43–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–31 | 28–36 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 44–45 | 47–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 3–4 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.