Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints31
- Anthony EdwardsAssists5
- Jaden McDanielsRebounds13
Warriors- Jonathan KumingaPoints23
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists3
- Kevon LooneyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–110
- Q40.1Timberwolves defensive team rebound117–110
- Q43.1Quinten Post misses 37-foot three point pullup jump shot117–110
- Q45.1Donte DiVincenzo out of bounds bad pass turnover117–110
- Q411.0Gui Santos makes 26-foot three pointer (Moses Moody assists)117–110
- Q417.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker out of bounds bad pass turnover117–107
- Q425.1Pat Spencer makes free throw 2 of 2117–107
- Q425.1Pat Spencer makes free throw 1 of 2117–106
- Q425.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker shooting foul117–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:04Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 55 – 56 GS · MIN 49% → 57% +9MIN 49% → 57%+9 pts
- Q21.0Anthony Edwards makes 30-foot three pointerMIN 58 – 60 GS · MIN 45% → 54% +9MIN 45% → 54%+9 pts
- Q310:48Julius Randle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 61 – 62 GS · MIN 48% → 57% +9MIN 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q310:07Anthony Edwards makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Mike Conley assists)MIN 64 – 64 GS · MIN 50% → 60% +9MIN 50% → 60%+9 pts
- Q37:11Mike Conley makes 22-foot three point shot (Julius Randle assists)MIN 74 – 68 GS · MIN 68% → 76% +8MIN 68% → 76%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -4.5
- ML MIN -200 / GS +165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -4
- MIN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 65.7%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -177
- GS +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 103.0 – 98.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 201.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1663 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | −46 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Stephen Curry −49 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +113 Elo | MIN 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 66.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 113.817th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 110.58th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +3.310th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 113.014th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 109.77th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.9 | Pace | 100.418th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 24–1713th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−46 Elo- Stephen Curry left hamstring strain−49 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–45 | 47–45 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–37 | 29–31 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 48–42 | 45–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–4 GS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- May 10MIN 102 @ GS 97PlayoffsPicked MIN 66%Hit
- May 8GS 93 @ MIN 117PlayoffsPicked MIN 81%Hit
- May 6GS 99 @ MIN 88PlayoffsPicked MIN 68%Miss
- Jan 15GS 116 @ MIN 115Picked MIN 69%Miss
- Dec 21GS 113 @ MIN 103Picked MIN 61%Miss
- Dec 8MIN 106 @ GS 114Picked GS 52%Hit
- Dec 6MIN 107 @ GS 90Picked MIN 52%Hit
- Mar 24GS 110 @ MIN 114Picked MIN 62%Hit