Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints44
- Nikola JokicAssists5
- Nikola JokicRebounds15
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Jalen WilliamsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–112
- Q42.1Jalen Williams defensive rebound105–112
- Q46.1Jamal Murray misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot105–112
- Q416.0Jalen Williams makes free throw 2 of 2105–112
- Q416.0Thunder offensive team rebound105–111
- Q416.0Jalen Williams misses free throw 1 of 2105–111
- Q416.0Nikola Jokic personal take foul105–111
- Q417.1Jamal Murray makes driving layup105–111
- Q422.0Nuggets Full timeout103–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:20Luguentz Dort makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)DEN 92 – 90 OKC · OKC 34% → 50% +17OKC 34% → 50%+17 pts
- Q42:23Nikola Jokic makes 6-foot two point shotDEN 100 – 100 OKC · DEN 26% → 43% +17DEN 26% → 43%+17 pts
- Q42:02Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 16-foot step back jumpshotDEN 100 – 102 OKC · OKC 57% → 75% +18OKC 57% → 75%+18 pts
- Q41:40Nikola Jokic makes 27-foot three point shotDEN 103 – 103 OKC · DEN 16% → 44% +28DEN 16% → 44%+28 pts
- Q41:19Jalen Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)DEN 103 – 106 OKC · OKC 55% → 86% +31OKC 55% → 86%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -10.5
- ML DEN +360 / OKC -500
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7
- OKC 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 75.6%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -383
- DEN +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 105.5 – 116.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1618 | 1747 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | +52 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | DEN crossed 1 time zone and OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +197 Elo | OKC 75.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 77.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 77.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.8 | Points scored | 120.04th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 107.53rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.9 | Margin | +12.51st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 117.74th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 105.41st of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 35–61st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–49 | 59–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–36 | 56–31 |
| Underdog | 16–13 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 53–40 | 50–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 5–7 OKC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.
- May 11OKC 92 @ DEN 87PlayoffsPicked OKC 70%Hit
- May 9OKC 104 @ DEN 113PlayoffsPicked OKC 69%Miss
- May 7DEN 106 @ OKC 149PlayoffsPicked OKC 78%Hit
- May 5DEN 121 @ OKC 119PlayoffsPicked OKC 79%Miss
- Mar 10DEN 140 @ OKC 127Picked OKC 76%Miss
- Mar 9DEN 103 @ OKC 127Picked OKC 72%Hit
- Nov 6OKC 122 @ DEN 124Picked OKC 69%Miss
- Oct 24OKC 102 @ DEN 87Picked DEN 54%Miss