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Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast

FinalOKC wins series 4-3

Away

Nuggets

50-32

93–125

at

Home

Thunder

68-14

DEN 27%OKC 73%

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Paycom Center · ABC

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.

OKC favored DEN favored116 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4OKC50%DEN

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Nuggets

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game93–125
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–125
  • Q40.0Nuggets offensive team rebound93–125
  • Q40.0Jalen Pickett misses 26-foot three point jumper93–125
  • Q413.1shot clock turnover93–125
  • Q437.2Peyton Watson makes driving layup93–125
  • Q445.1Hunter Tyson defensive rebound91–125
  • Q447.1Jaylin Williams misses 6-foot two point shot91–125
  • Q41:07Jalen Pickett makes 26-foot three point shot (Peyton Watson assists)91–125
  • Q41:12Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound88–125

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q11:40Russell Westbrook makes 22-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)DEN 24 – 14 OKC · DEN 45% → 52% +7
  2. Q150.1Alex Caruso makes 26-foot three pointer (Aaron Wiggins assists)DEN 26 – 19 OKC · OKC 47% → 54% +7
  3. Q29:26Aaron Wiggins makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Luguentz Dort assists)DEN 29 – 32 OKC · OKC 69% → 75% +6
  4. Q27:20Luguentz Dort makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)DEN 32 – 35 OKC · OKC 69% → 75% +7
  5. Q22:18Jalen Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DEN 41 – 47 OKC · OKC 74% → 81% +6

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Thunder 73%

StrongHit
DEN 27%OKC 73%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.

Market
OKC -8.5
ML DEN +250 / OKC -315
Pre-line forecast
OKC 75%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
OKC -6
OKC 72%
Ratings vs. market
−0.3 pts
OKC: Elo 72.4%, market 72.7%
Fair odds
OKC -266
DEN +266 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DEN 102.5 – 111.0 OKC
Posted spread, posted total 213.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDENOKCWhy
Team rating16331732Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+13+45DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Travel−12−12DEN crossed 1 time zone and OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsOKC +167 EloOKC 72.4%
Market-implied ratingsOKC 74.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastOKC 74.5%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastOKC 72.7%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder compared, with each team's league rank
DENStatOKC
3rd of 30120.8Points scored120.04th of 30
25th of 30116.9Points allowed107.53rd of 30
9th of 30+3.9Margin+12.51st of 30
3rd of 30117.8Offense rating117.74th of 30
21st of 30114.0Defense rating105.41st of 30
7th of 30101.6Pace101.86th of 30
15th of 305–5Last 108–22nd of 30
4th of 3024–17Road vs home35–61st of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Nuggets

+13 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Thunder

+45 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

NuggetsThunder
1500155016001650170017501800NovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDENOKC
Against the spread46–4959–34
Last 108–23–7
Favorite28–3656–33
Underdog18–133–1
Overs–unders54–4151–42
Overs–unders, last 106–44–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DEN 6–8 OKC in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.