Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Brandin PodziemskiPoints28
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists6
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds6
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints29
- Anthony EdwardsAssists12
- Julius RandleRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–121
- Q422.2Jonathan Kuminga makes two point shot110–121
- Q426.1Jonathan Kuminga defensive rebound108–121
- Q429.1Anthony Edwards misses 34-foot three point pullup jump shot108–121
- Q449.1Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound108–121
- Q451.1Jonathan Kuminga misses free throw 2 of 2108–121
- Q451.1Quinten Post enters the game for Jimmy Butler III108–121
- Q451.1Gui Santos enters the game for Draymond Green108–121
- Q451.1Warriors offensive team rebound108–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:10Brandin Podziemski makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 3 – 2 MIN · GS 20% → 25% +5GS 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q110:31Julius Randle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)GS 3 – 5 MIN · MIN 75% → 80% +5MIN 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q27:07Anthony Edwards makes 29-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)GS 34 – 41 MIN · MIN 81% → 85% +5MIN 81% → 85%+5 pts
- Q23:44Mike Conley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)GS 42 – 48 MIN · MIN 78% → 84% +6MIN 78% → 84%+6 pts
- Q22:20Draymond Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 47 – 53 MIN · GS 12% → 16% +5GS 12% → 16%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -9.5
- ML GS +320 / MIN -425
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -7
- MIN 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 75.7%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -340
- GS +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 97.0 – 106.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 203.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1669 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −49 | +18 | GS: Missing Stephen Curry −49 · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −24 | GS crossed 2 time zones and MIN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +197 Elo | MIN 75.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 75.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 75.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 114.313th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 109.35th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +5.04th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 114.59th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 109.56th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.4 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−49 Elo- Stephen Curry left hamstring strain−49 Elo
Timberwolves
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–46 | 46–45 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 29–31 | 31–37 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 46–47 | 49–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 4–7 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- May 12MIN 117 @ GS 110PlayoffsPicked MIN 64%Hit
- May 10MIN 102 @ GS 97PlayoffsPicked MIN 66%Hit
- May 8GS 93 @ MIN 117PlayoffsPicked MIN 81%Hit
- May 6GS 99 @ MIN 88PlayoffsPicked MIN 68%Miss
- Jan 15GS 116 @ MIN 115Picked MIN 69%Miss
- Dec 21GS 113 @ MIN 103Picked MIN 61%Miss
- Dec 8MIN 106 @ GS 114Picked GS 52%Hit
- Dec 6MIN 107 @ GS 90Picked MIN 52%Hit